1. CSG/ERC 44 th Annual Meeting Springfield, MA Douglas MacIntyre, Senior Oil Market Analyst Petroleum Division U.S. Energy Information Administration August 10, 2004 Northeast Energy Outlook Panel

2. WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

3. Crude Oil Price, OECD Days Supply, and World Excess Production Capacity

4. OECD Commercial Oil Inventories Source: History: Oil Market Report, IEA, July 2004

5. Will OPEC Keep Markets Adequately Supplied? History Projections Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

6. Annual World Oil Demand Growth 1993-2005 Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

7. Annual World Oil Demand Growth by Region, 1993-2005 * Other includes Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and Africa. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

8. U.S. Crude Inventories Projected to Remain in Normal Range Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004 History Million Barrels

9. U.S. Net Crude Oil Imports Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

10. U.S. Crude Oil Refinery Inputs Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

11. Distillate Prices Generally Follow Crude Oil Spot West Texas Intermediate East Coast Retail On-Highway Diesel Fuel East Coast Residential Heating Oil

12. East Coast Distillate Stocks Source: Energy Information Administration 2002-03 2001-02 2003-04

13. Distillate Winter Demand Expected to Continue to Grow Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

14. Last Winter’s Weather Was Close to Average Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

15. Distillate Production Higher Leading Up to Peak Demand Season Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

16. Distillate Imports Expected to be Key Component In Winter Supply Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

17. Distillate Stocks Expected to be in Normal Range Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004. Actual Forecast

18. Northeast Heating Oil Inventories Monthly Source: Energy Information Administration. Weekly

19. Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Heating Oil (Northeast) 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 2003- 2004 2004- 2005 Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption (gals.) 577743728693 Average Price$1.10$1.34$1.36$1.56 Expenditures$635$993$991$1,080 Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

20. Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil and Natural Gas

21. U.S. Propane Stocks Average Range Lower Operational Inventory = 18.5 Million Barrels Actual Forecast Source: Energy Information Administration

22. Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Propane (Midwest) 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 2003- 2004 2004- 2005 Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption (gals.) 803941888919 Average Price$1.11$1.20$1.30$1.41 Expenditures$888$1,125$1,156$1,298 Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

23. U.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices (Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval*) Sources: History: Natural Gas Week; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004. *The confidence intervals show +/- 2 standard errors based on the properties of the model. The ranges do not include the effects of major supply disruptions.

24. U.S. Working Gas in Storage (Difference from Previous 5-Year Average) EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004

25. Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Natural Gas (Midwest) 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 2003- 2004 2004- 2005 Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption (mcf) 81.395.289.993.0 Average Price$7.41$8.40$9.69$10.56 Expenditures$602$800$871$983 Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

26. Crude Oil and Gasoline Price Outlook Regular Gasoline Wholesale Gasoline Crude Oil (WTI) Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

27. U.S. Average Retail Regular Gasoline Prices Source: EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline Price Survey.

28. PADD 1 Sources of Supply 877 MB/D (2003) Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly About 25% of PADD 1’s supply comes from imports. Canada, Virgin Islands, Venezuela, Western Europe are important sources of import volumes. Gasoline Imports Mainly Serve PADD 1