1. The Science of Instream Flows – Evidence of an adaptive process and the dichotomy of perceived information needs Dr. Thomas B. Hardy Associate Director Utah Water Research Laboratory Utah State University Flows for the Future Oct 31/Nov 1 st Texas State University – San Marcos

2. The Science of Instream Flows Instream Flows is the art and science of collecting data in systems we cannot adequately sample using methods developed by committees of technically diverse participants for organisms we know very little about in order to form concepts about processes we do not fully understand that we then represent as simplified mathematical abstractions that we cannot precisely analyze to determine their responses to indeterminate stresses we cannot accurately predict now let alone in the future all in such a way that society at large is given no reason to suspect the extent of our ignorance.

3. The Science of Instream Flows Moving in the direction of more technologically sophisticated and multidisciplinary requiring integration Moving in the direction of more technologically sophisticated and multidisciplinary requiring integration  Hydrology  Hydraulics  Sediment Transport  Water Quality

4. Science within a Process The level of technical competency of those involved is increasing The level of technical competency of those involved is increasing Demand for more quantitative assessments that are science based Demand for more quantitative assessments that are science based Everyone wants an answer with minimal ‘uncertainty’ while most do not truly understand what uncertainty actually is! Everyone wants an answer with minimal ‘uncertainty’ while most do not truly understand what uncertainty actually is! What is acceptable is most often a moving target as the science unfolds through the process What is acceptable is most often a moving target as the science unfolds through the process

5. What the technical process looks like:

6. The Dichotomy of Information Needs: Many in the process want the underlying science to be at the highest level Many in the process want the underlying science to be at the highest level Many in ultimate decision making positions are far removed from the technical process and rely on staff for their recommendations Many in ultimate decision making positions are far removed from the technical process and rely on staff for their recommendations At the end they want it simplified as much as possible – ‘Dumb it down!’ At the end they want it simplified as much as possible – ‘Dumb it down!’

7. What the decision makers really want at the end of the process:

8. The Process is a Feedback Loop As the instream flow assessment process unfolds over time: As the instream flow assessment process unfolds over time:  Process participants want more science based decision processes  As the technological knowledge base increases, so does the demand for the technology increase  Higher demands are placed on agency, consultancy’s, and public technological education and competency  Managers and decision makers are increasingly faced with more complex integraion of the underlying science components – Policy Level Separation from the Science

9. There be Monsters Ahead! How about a little vocabulary test How about a little vocabulary test  Hydraulic modeling was undertaken with an orthogonal, curvilinear coordinate system on a staggered grid using a semi-implicit finite-difference technique assuming a hydrostatic pressure distribution and shallow flow to neglect vertical shear to solve the Navier-Stokes Equations  Habitat assessments were conducted by integrating the hydrology, hydraulic, and water temperature modeling using an Individual Based Model using Bioenergetics coupled to autonomous goal seeking with intra- and inter-species behavioral rules using cellular automata

10. Conclusions Researchers have already cast much doubt on the subject and if they continue their studies we shall soon know nothing at all. Mark Twain