1. Thursday, February 11, 2016 A Prospective New Agenda for Long-Term, Conflict-Sensitive Development: Moving from Anecdotes to an Analytical-Predictive Framework Marc J. Cohen Association for International Agriculture and Rural Development 42 nd Annual Meeting “Cultivating Peace: Agriculture in a World of Conflict and Violence” June 5-6, 20065

2. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2 Prevention Requires Understanding Causes Current thinking emphasizes: Ethnic animosities Environmental Scarcities “Resource Curse” Diamonds Oil Geography

3. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 3 A TALE OF TWO AFRICAN COUNTRIES Country 1: Depends on diamond exports Landlocked Has many ethnic groups Has difficult environmental conditions Bought Soviet arms during the Cold War Country 2: Diverse exports Good ports Ethnically homogenous Pro-Western during the Cold War

4. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 4 A TALE OF TWO AFRICAN COUNTRIES, PART 2 Country 1 = Peaceful, prosperous, democratic Botswana Country 2 = Strife-torn Somalia, which is ruled by competing armed groups Conclusion: The policy contexts in which conflict-inducing factors play out matter greatly

5. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 5 DOES SOWING AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT YIELD A HARVEST OF PEACE? Yes, in Kenya Smallholder dairy farming Horticulture production for export Maize breeding New soil conservation practices Yes, in Mali Rapid growth in the cotton sector Yes, in Zambia Maize breeding New soil conservation practices

6. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 6 DOES SOWING AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT YIELD A HARVEST OF PEACE? Part 2 BUT: Somalia and pre-genocide Rwanda received considerable amounts of agricultural aid Again, socio-economic and policy contexts make all the difference