1. Political Socialization Political socialization is a lifelong process through which an individual acquires opinions through contact with many different agents and group identifications. What are the factors that shape political attitudes?

2. Political Socialization How do we get our political values? What influences us? Family Gender Age Religion Education Socio-economic status (SES) Race and ethnicity Geographic region Population density—urban, suburban, rural

3. Gender Gap? Male or female? 1. Role of government-- more activist? Less activist? 2. Guaranteed health care and basic social services-- In favor? Against? 3.Restrictions on firearm ownership-- In favor? Against? 4.Same-sex marriage-- In favor? Against? 5. Legal abortion without restrictions-- In favor? Against?

4. Public Opinion What is public opinion? How do politicians gauge public opinion? – Direct experience Letters, phone calls, e-mail, direct contact with constituents in meetings and other public appearances – Public opinion surveys or polls

5. Public and Opinion Polling Have you ever taken a poll? What was the poll about? Was the poll on a web site or through Survey Monkey, in a magazine? Over the telephone? On the radio? Can you think of any polls you’ve seen or heard in the media recently? Do you trust poll numbers or are you skeptical of them? Why?

6. Public Opinion Polling 1. Do you think it should be legal or illegal to use a hand-held cellular telephone while driving a car? – Legal or illegal? 2. How about a hands-free cellular telephone, which you don’t have to pick up or hold to use? – Legal or illegal?

7. Public Opinion Polling 3. Do you think using a HANDS-FREE cell phone while driving is more safe than using a HAND- HELD phone, or is it less safe, or is using a HANDS_FREE cell phone just the same as using a HAND-HELD cell phone? – More safeless safejust the same DK 4. Do you think sending a text message while driving, either on a cell phone or other electronic device, should be legal or illegal? – Legal or illegal?

8. Public Opinion Polling 5. IF ILLEGAL, should texting while driving be punished more severely than drunk driving, less severely than drunk driving, or about the same as drunk driving? – More severely less severely about the same DK 6. How often do you, yourself, drive? – Very often somewhat often occasionally – Hardly ever never

9. Public Opinion and Polling NYTimes poll results: “Nearly all Americans say sending a text message while driving should be illegal, and about half say texting while behind the wheel should be punished at least as harshly as drunken driving.” Do you think these results are indeed representative of what Americans think about this issue? Why or why not? Do you think responses might be different if the questions were read to participants instead of participants reading it themselves? Why or why not? What do you think about the wording of the questions? What sorts of things do you think the pollsters for the Times/CBS had to do to make sure that the poll was valid?

10. Public Opinion and Polling Read/analyze poll results and answer questions that accompany the New York Times/CBS poll and related articles.

11. Public Opinion and Polling How would you conduct this poll on our school population? How could you ensure that the poll was scientifically sound and adequately represented the views of the whole school? Think about: Size of the school population Sample size Sub-populations methodology

12. Public Opinion Polling Scientific polling developed in the 1930s – The Gallup Organization is the oldest and one of the most respected polling organizations, along with the Pew Research Center and Harris Polls. Challenges of polling – Sample size – Sample bias—ensuring a random sample – Question wording

13. Public Opinion Polling Sample – The portion of the population surveyed on an issue Sample size – 1,000 to 2,000 can represent 300 million Americans – Sampling error “Margin of error” The larger the sample, the smaller the sampling error Typically +/– 3% is acceptable George Gallup: “Okay, next time you go for a blood test, tell them to take it all.”

14. Public Opinion Polling Random sample – Every individual in the population group being polled has an equal chance of being selected – Samples can be of the nation as a whole or more narrow groups, such as “likely voters,” members of one party or age group, residents of one state or congressional district, etc. – Achievable via random digit dialing today because 95% of households have telephones

15. Public Opinion Polling Sample bias – The effect of having a sample that does not represent all segments of the population being polled—subgroups must be included.

17. What happened? Just before the election of 1948, Gallup gave the election to Dewey by 49.5 to 44.5% and Roper gave Dewey 52.2 to 37.1% for Truman. But when the election was over, Truman had beat Dewey for re-election by over 2 million votes—28 states and 303 electoral votes to Dewey’s 16 states and 189 electoral votes. What was wrong with the polling?

18. What was wrong with the polling in the 1948 election? The pollsters did their last poll app. 2 weeks before the election—enough for some voters to change their minds The “undecideds” didn’t vote as expected. Often, “undecideds” go with the incumbent (in this case, Truman) Sampling errors—survey taken over the phone—household telephones, at the time, were limited to the upper class

19. Public Opinion Polling Sample bias – How might the following result in sample bias? Calling survey participants on the phone only from Noon until 3PM. Asking survey participants to call in their vote. Polling only a retirement home to gauge the nation’s views on health care. Asking bald men what kind of shampoo they prefer. Polling only residents listed in the City of Atlanta telephone book. Going door-to-door in an affluent suburb in the middle of the day.

20. Public Opinion Polling Questions – Respondents should be asked about things they know and have thought about “Public Affairs Act of 1975” experiment Study: Only 10 percent of people will say “I don’t know.”

21. Types of Public Opinion Polls National polls – Effort to measure national opinion within a period of time – Major examples: ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, CNN/USA Today/Gallup, Los Angeles Times poll

22. Types of Public Opinion Polls Campaign polls – Benchmark poll Conducted by candidates for public office Taken within state or district to gather baseline information about attitudes toward candidate Instrumental in designing campaign strategy – Tracking poll Conducted by campaigns and media Follow changes in attitudes toward candidates Help revise campaign strategy if necessary

23. Types of Public Opinion Polls – Exit polls Surveys of voters at polling stations on election day Often used by news agencies to “call” an election for one candidate or another

24. Types of Public Opinion Polls – Exit polls Controversies – 1980 – NBC announced Reagan the winner before polls in the West had closed. – 2000 -- Florida called for Al Gore by several networks in 2000 election, then switched to George W. Bush, then announced the vote was too close to call. – 2004 – Even though networks hid results of exit polls until after close of all polls, results of poll leaked, Kerry seemed ahead.

25. Types of Public Opinion Polls – Exit polls Controversies – Defenders of exit polling: Not intended to predict winner, just understand why people voted the way they did

26. Types of Public Opinion Polls Pseudo-polls – Self-selection polls E.g. viewer or listener call-in polls, Internet polls What are the limitations of this kind of polling?

27. Types of Public Opinion Polls Pseudo-polls – Push polls Example from Florida: – “Please tell me if you would be more or less likely to vote for Lt. Governor Buddy MacKay if you knew that Lt. Gov Buddy MacKay plans to implement a new early-release program for violent offenders who have served a mere 60 percent of their sentences if he is elected governor.” – A false claim What is the goal of this kind of poll?

28. Public Opinion Critics of public opinion polling – Bandwagon effect – Politicians follow rather than lead – Easily manipulated to achieve desired results Supporters of polling – Some studies show that politicians use polls to help win support for their policies, not to follow – Politicians should pay attention to polls; give more direct power to the people. – How else can politicians gauge public opinion and then represent the public? Which side do you agree with more?

29. Public Opinion “I really don't worry about polls or focus groups. I do what I think is right.” – George W. Bush “Unless mass views have some place in the shaping of policy, all talk about democracy is nonsense” – V.O. Key

30. Public Opinion Polling Examine case studies on polling