1. A NNUAL AND SEASONAL VARIABILITY OF WIND WAVE PARAMETERS ON THE B LACK S EA F.N. Gippius, V.S. Arkhipkin and G.V. Surkova Lomonosov Moscow State University 11.G.34.31.0007

2. Aims & Tasks The aim is an assessment of wind waves parameters and their multiannual variability on the Black Sea 19.09.2014Science of the Future Tasks: Preparation of a digital terrain model of the Black Sea’s bottom and coasts Preparation of a meteorological dataset Simulation of wind waves on the Black Sea Evaluation of seasonal average and extreme parameters Evaluation of multiannual trends Analysis and interpretation of results 2

3. DATA & METHODS

4. DTM of bottom and coasts 19.09.2014Science of the Future Basis – nautical chart of the Black Sea, M=1:2,5 Mio| Golden Software MapViewer was used to digitize the map | Result – a 129 ×242 cells matrix with 5 km spatial resolution 4

5. Meteorological data & Wave model NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Time span from 1948 Spatial resolution – 1,875° × 1,9046° Temporal resolution – 6 hours Meteorological data interpolated on numerical grid SWAN wave model 3G wind-wave model Bottom friction, nonlinear wave-wave interaction, diffraction and breaking considered 19.09.2014Science of the Future5

6. MODEL VALIDATION

7. AVISO satellite altimetry 19.09.2014Science of the Future Late 2009 – nowaday 5-day averaged multimission SWH values 1° × 1° spatial resolution 7

8. SWAN vs AVISO 19.09.2014Science of the Future8

9. RESULTS

10. Average wave parameters 19.09.2014Science of the Future SWH P L 10

11. Seasonal SWH maxima 19.09.2014Science of the Future WinterSpring Summer Autumn 11

12. Typical storm cases 19.09.2014Science of the Future12

13. Total storm duration 19.09.2014Science of the Future13

14. Extreme wave parameters Maximal wave height possible once in 100 years (m) 19.09.2014Science of the Future14

15. Interannual storminess variability Annual total duration of storms (h) 19.09.2014Science of the Future15 r ≈ -0.35

16. Interannual storminess variability Annual total duration of storms (h) 19.09.2014Science of the Future16 r ≈ -0.25

17. Seasonal storminess variability 19.09.2014Science of the Future17

18. Conclusion 1.Wave parameters of the Black Sea were simulated continuously from 1948 to 2010. 2.Seasonal extreme wind parameters and their spatial distribution were assessed. 3.Trends of interannual duration and quantity of storms derived. Practically no alterations of storm activity observed over the entire hindcast period. 4.Increases and recessions of storminess on the Black Sea correlate with the NAO index Further reading: Arkhipkin, V. S., Gippius, F. N., Koltermann, K. P., and Surkova, G. V.: Wind waves on the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 1193-1221, doi:10.5194/nhessd-2-1193-2014, 2014. 19.09.2014Science of the Future18