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RUSSIAN ECONOMY AFTER THE 1998 CURRENCY CRISIS RUSSIA REDUX? -New Left Review, No. 44,New Left Review, No. 44, -March-April 2007.March-April 2007.
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Output is growing, inflation is under control
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Unemployment is falling
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FOREX increased in 2007 to over $400 billion, but RER keeps growing
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The dynamics of HDI in Belarus is better than in Russia, not to speak about China or Cuba
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Russia was leading in economic liberalization, while Belarus was lagging
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But Belarus and Uzbekistan are doing better (even though they are net importers of fuel), not to mention net exporters like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan
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Russian growth is lagging behind that of oil exporters and some oil importers
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In the 1990s mortality rate rose to the highest level in the postwar period
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In the 1990s the murder rate tripled or quadrupled
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Relevant papers : http://www.carleton.ca/~vpopov Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms. - Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 49, Issue 1, March 2007, pp. 1-31. Democracy, Quality of Institutions and Economic Growth (co- authored with V. Polterovich). – In: Political Institutions And Development. Failed Expectations and Renewed Hopes. Edited by Natalia Dinello and Vladimir Popov. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2007. Reform Strategies and Economic Performance of Russia’s Regions. – World Development, Vol. 29, No 5, 2001, pp. 865- 86. Shock Therapy versus Gradualism: The End of the Debate (Explaining the Magnitude of the Transformational Recession). – Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 42, Spring, 2000, No. 1, pp. 1-57.
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Collapse of the public spending
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Russia missed the opportunity to use the windfall profits from oil and gas exports to repair the damage done to the public spending in the 1990s
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Macroeconomic policy after the crisis
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Why real incomes and wages grow faster than productivity?
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Macroeconomic policy after the crisis
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In 1995-98 exchange rate was pegged to the dollar, inflation fell, but RER increased greatly, and FOREX decreased
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Oil prices grow, but GDP growth does not accelerate
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Oil prices in 2006 $ per barrel(1869-2006)
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