1. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network delivering policy analysis on the performance of Cohesion policy 2007-2013 Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Evaluation Network Meeting 14-15 March, 2013

2. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Objectives  To synthesise 27 national reports produced by network of independent experts on progress in implementing programmes co-financed by ERDF and Cohesion Fund in 2007-2013 period.  To update report produced a year ago by examining developments since then as regards:  socio-economic context  changes in regional disparities across the EU during the crisis  scale of support for regional development provided by EU funding  pace of implementing programmes  outcomes of programmes – what has been achieved?  evaluations undertaken in Member States on Cohesion policy interventions  future challenges

3. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Socio-economic context and regional disparities  Economic crisis continued in 2011 and 2012 – at best sluggish growth with high and rising unemployment in most countries increasing importance of job creation  Widespread adoption of fiscal consolidation measures but budget deficits and government borrowing have remained high  Effect – to put pressure on government expenditure, especially investment which has declined markedly in real terms since 2009  Government investment fell by 12% on average in EU and by more in Bulgaria, Romania and three EU15 Cohesion countries  Reduction in development expenditure likely to have been similar – public finance problems set to continue to constrain spending up to end of period  Crisis seems to have led to widening of regional disparities – weaker regions less able to cope and more affected in many MS by cutbacks in public expenditure  At same time, MS policy attention has shifted from reducing regional disparities to achieving growth and job creation at national level

4. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Scale of Cohesion policy funding  ERDF and Cohesion Fund together total EUR 270.1 billion in present period – 86% under Convergence Objective  Support provided equivalent to over a third of government capital expenditure a year in most EU12 countries over period  But more in remaining period up to 2015 given low rate of expenditure so far - funding still to be claimed equivalent to half or more of annual capital spending in 8 of EU12 countries and almost a third in Greece and Portugal  Figures demonstrate critical importance of EU funding for development expenditure but raise question over ability of some countries to absorb amount available  Response of EU to financial difficulties in MS has been to increase co-financing rate – effect has been to reduce MS funding and so total expenditure on programmes  Main effect in EU15 - total funding reduced by 17% in Portugal, 13% in Belgium, 12% in Ireland, 10% in Spain and 6-7% in Greece and Italy

5. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Shifts of funding between policy areas  10% of total available for period shifted between expenditure categories (where formal approval required) up to Oct 2012, mostly in 2011 and 2012 – more shifted within categories  Biggest additions to RTD, investment support and roads plus urban renewal in EU15  Biggest reductions to innovation support for SMEs (due to crisis depressing demand) environmental infrastructure, rail and urban transport  In around half MS, specific measures taken, with ERDF support, to help SMEs access credit  In many cases (e.g. Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania and Greece) FEIs used for this purpose  But difficulties in setting them up and operating them have limited take-up and effectiveness  In Greece, operations speeded up by relaxing regulations on provision of credit

6. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Pace of policy implementation  Difficult to assess pace of carrying out programmes – but data on payments from ERDF and Cohesion Fund and allocations to projects in MS both suggest serious delays  Limited evidence of any marked acceleration in implementation to make good time lost in early years of period when focus on spending funding of previous period …

7. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 At end-2012, 6 th year of period, ERDF payments to EU15 averaged only 46% of total funding for period:

8. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Payments from ERDF particularly low in RO and IT and well below average in MT, BG, AT, CY and CZ - little acceleration in 2012

9. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Payments from Cohesion Fund are also lagging – averaging only 41% of funding available at end-2012 and just 22% in RO – and limited acceleration in 2012

10. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Delays in implementation  Payments to CBC programmes lower still – 40% of funding on average  Payments data include advance payments and so overstate pace of implementation  Data on allocations suggest more progress but available only up to end-2011 - 76% of funding allocated to projects in EU15, 69% in EU12  In Italy and Bulgaria, 45% of funding still to be allocated, in Romania, France and Czech Republic, 35-40%, and in Austria, over a third  like payments data, these figures suggest serious delays in implementation  Prospect of funding not being absorbed and/or of priority being given to absorption over most effective use of funds  Allocation especially low as regards innovation in SMEs, investment in energy and railways (under 60% of funding available) - highlights why funding shifted  Crisis major reason for delays, or non-catch-up – problems of co-financing  Response to shift funding and to ease co-financing difficulties (e.g. through loans)

11. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Payments to FEIs  Rate of implementation of programmes overstated by payments data insofar as they include payments into FE schemes  In most countries, major part of these payments still to reach final beneficiaries which needs to happen before end-2015 for them to be eligible for ERDF financing  Of EUR 6.9 billion paid into schemes across EU, only EUR 2.5 billion had reached final beneficiaries by end-2011  In addition, EUR 3.6 billion of ERDF planned to go to FEIs still remained to be allocated to schemes  Over 75% of planned funding for FEIs was therefore still to reach final recipients at end-2011 ….

12. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 In all but 9 countries, over 75% of ERDF planned to go to FEIs was still to reach final beneficiaries at end-2011 and 95% or more in ES, RO, GR, BG, AT and SK

13. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Achievements  Despite delays, increasing evidence of positive effects especially in respect of enterprise support, transport and environmental infrastructure  But difficulty in assessing outcomes due to continuing deficiency of information in AIRs, uncertain reliability of data on indicators and errors in data recorded  Outcomes across EU reported up to end- 2011 include:  creation of 383,000 jobs in FTE terms  almost 53,000 business start-ups assisted  14,700 cooperation projects between research centres and business supported  creation of nearly 15,000 FTE jobs in R&D activities  construction of 1,270 km of new roads (620 km in EU12);  improvement of 10,000 km of existing roads, (5,800 km in EU12);  addition of 300 km to rail network and improvement of 800 km of existing lines  completion of second phase of Sofia metro  improved supply of drinking water to 2.2 million people  connection of 4.7 million people to improved wastewater treatment

14. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Evaluations  In 2011- Oct 2012, evaluations averaged one per OP across the EU  Increase in activity in CZ, IT and GR – no new evaluations in ES, IE, DK, LU and MT, slowdown in NL and PT  Low activity in ES, PT, IE and GR cause for concern given financial constraints  Most evaluations devoted to assessing procedures and implementation – only 18% were focussed on outcomes and effects  Large number of evaluations on enterprise support and RTDI – most found positive effects, including of FEIs, but difficulties of setting FEIs up in BG and RO  Few evaluations of transport and environmental infrastructure – gap in knowledge  Few MS make systematic use of evaluation findings, though in three Baltic States procedures set up to ensure they feed into policy-making  But much room for improvement in design, methods and specifications of evaluations to increase reliability of findings – and need for wider acceptance by MS of their importance for developing more effective policies

15. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 A few concluding points  Large amount of funding still to be absorbed over next 3 years in many MS might not only lead to focus on projects quick to carry out but divert policy attention away from getting 2014-2020 programmes underway  Funding to be absorbed even larger than indicated because large share of FEIs recorded as expenditure when paid into schemes still needs to reach final recipients  Policy focus in MS as regards use of Cohesion policy funding shifting away from development of weaker regions just when regional disparities seem to be widening  Though growing evidence of achievements of Cohesion policy, deficiencies in AIRs and lack of information on outcomes tend to mean they are not sufficiently recognised  The indicators monitored need to be greatly improved and their link to policy objectives more clearly identified if a results-oriented policy is to become a reality  Such a policy equally requires a step change in the number, nature and quality of evaluations carried out

16. ISMERI EUROPA Expert Evaluation Network – Synthesis of National Reports, 2012 Thank you for your attention