1. 1 Improved Water Services Gary Carter Director, NWS Office of Hydrologic Development Manager, NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program July 9, 2009 Reducing the economic and societal impacts of coastal hazards, habitat loss, and coastal pollution

2. 2 NOAA’s Mission: Develop and deliver water forecasts and warnings to save lives and property, manage resources, and enhance America’s economy Observations Reservoirs, Streamflow Snow Streamflow, Ground Water Water Quality Forecasts & Warnings Precipitation, Snow, Streamflow, Soil Moisture, Soil Temperature, Water Temperature, Lake/Bay Levels, River & Flash Floods Other Partners: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Tennessee Valley Authority, Bonneville Power Administration, and state, regional, and local cooperators Water Levels Rain/Snow Federal Water Partners

3. 3 Water is the lifeblood of this planet. All known forms of life require water to survive. Long-term viability of municipal water supplies and critical ecosystems are at risk. Imperatives include managing fish and wildlife habitats, maintaining quality of rivers, lakes, wetlands, groundwater and estuaries, and building community resilience to water extremes. Triple Threat: Scarcity and floods, climate change, and aging infrastructure Steady population growth in the most vulnerable areas near rivers and streams  High Impact Consequently, the value of infrastructure and economic activity within the floodplain has increased Climate change continues to augment the variability and frequency of extremes in temperature and precipitation Floods and droughts cause more U.S. economic losses than any other type of natural disaster. Floods claim more than 90 lives each year, exceeding any other severe weather phenomenon Average annual flood damages exceed $7B Flood fighting/mitigation can cost hundreds of millions per event (e.g. Fargo ND, 2009: $200M) Water has always been a critical component in the success of any economic endeavor. Virtually every business has a water imperative: manufacturing, agriculture, and energy production rely on a steady supply of water. Rapid growth of water as a market driver is expected to continue (e.g. IBM estimates water management will soon be a $20B industry) The National Imperative for Water Services Protect Life and PropertySupport Economic Security Protect Health and EnvironmentMitigate Escalating Risk NOAA is committed to saving lives while reducing impacts to people and economic activity 3

4. 4 Water Services Improvement Plan: Responding to the National Imperative The three business areas of NOAA’s Integrated Water Forecasting Program are aimed at producing a seamless suite of water forecast information, covering: with increased emphasis on climate-related impacts for arid and coastal watersheds. Coasts, Lakes and Estuaries Water Resources Rivers and Floods FloodsDroughts Short-term Warnings Seasonal Outlooks Key Business Areas SummitSea

5. 5 Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program Services Objectives NOAA’s Role: Provide accurate and reliable water forecasts (where, when, and how much) Provide flood inundation forecast maps for 100% of high-impact river and coastal communities Reduce 1-7 day river forecast errors by 50% and quantify uncertainty Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Rivers and Floods Couple modeling systems for rivers, lakes and estuaries Coast, Estuary, River Information Services (CERIS) Coasts, Lakes and Estuaries Provide seamless suite of summit-to-sea high resolution water quantity and quality forecasts Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) Water Resources Advance and integrate observing systems for water resources Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3Objective 4 Objective 5 5

6. 6 Deliver a seamless suite of information from the “Summit to the Sea” to address growing demands for water forecasts Coast, Estuary, River Information Services - CERIS Coastal communities use critical water information about their watersheds, rivers, estuaries and coasts to mitigate natural hazards, and manage water resources and ecosystems NOAA provides this integrated suite of information to users in ways that are understandable, useable, and easily accessible In 2007, shore-adjacent counties accounted for: 18% of the nation’s land area 36% of the U.S. population 42% of the national economic output

7. 7 NOAA NOAA Research Ocean Service Aligning multi-agency collaboration is essential –Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of consistent water resources monitoring and forecast information – summit to sea –Sustain quality of life and the natural environment –“No water agency can meet the full array of climate change-induced water problems on its own” USGSUSGS USACEUSACE Weather Service Satellite Service Hydraulic Engineerin g Center Water Resources Institute Remote Sensing Centers Cold Regions Research Lab Water Science Centers Geography Discipline Water Discipline Partnership for Integrated Water Resources Science and Services

8. 8 Water Services Gaps: River Forecasting Gap Improvement Objectives Low Flows: Current forecast system for high flows (e.g. floods) must be enhanced to address low flows in support of navigation/barge traffic, saltwater intrusion in coastal rivers, and drought-affected areas. Objective #1 Reduce 1-7 day river forecast errors by 50% and quantify uncertainty Objective #2 Provide dynamic flood inundation forecast maps for 100% of high- impact river and coastal communities Complex Hydrology: Need forecasting tools for advanced, complex and extreme hydrologic situations to better model and support levee and dam breaks, bridge obstructions, ice jams, and overland flooding events. Knowledge of Uncertainty: Need additional ensemble forecast and diagnostic verification capabilities to better communicate risks to decision makers. Dynamic Flood Inundation: Need capability to generate dynamic flood inundation maps routinely and in real-time, with advanced spatial models and high resolution data, to better represent and communicate the areal extent and depth of flood waters.

9. 9 Water Services Gaps: Water Forecasting Gap Improvement Objectives Forecast Coverage: In addition to current service locations on major rivers, need capability to: generate water analyses and forecasts for entire watersheds (gridded) at high space-time resolution, and couple river models with estuary models to improve and expand forecast information for coastal populations and ecosystems. Objective #3 Couple modeling systems for rivers, lakes and estuaries Objective #4 Provide seamless suite of summit- to-sea high resolution water quantity and quality forecasts Forecast Variables: Need to expand services beyond current river flow and stage forecasts to include forecasts of all major water budget variables (e.g., snowpack, evaporation, soil moisture, soil temperature, snow water equivalent) and forecasts of water temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and nutrients. Geospatial Decision Support: Need extensive geospatial decision-support data service capabilities to provide decision makers “GIS-ready” information.

10. 10 Water Services Gaps: Water Observations Gap Improvement Objectives River Observing Systems: Need robust, secure river gauging programs (e.g. SECURE Water Act) and river gauges on smaller tributary streams and in critical zones, to better account for tidal influences and improve forecast reach and accuracy. Objective #5 Advance and integrate observing systems for water resources Surface Observing Systems: Need extensive, spatially optimized surface observations of key water variables (e.g., snow water equivalent, soil moisture and temperature, evaporation, and frost depth) to improve water modeling system and forecast accuracy. Remote Observing Systems: Need to expand use of satellite data in hydrologic forecasts and plan to incorporate data from new systems optimized for water to help reduce uncertainty in forecasts and improve accuracy.

11. 11 Annual Funding to Support IWRSS and Next-Generation Water Services (preliminary estimates) NOAA’s Objective Planned Enhancements 2011 – 2015 Required Enhancements 2012 – 2016 Recurring O&M Costs Beyond 2016 1. 50% Reduction in 1-7 day Flood Forecast Error and Quantify Uncertainty (NWS and OAR) $4M$30M$20M 2. Flood Forecast Inundation Map Coverage for 100% High-impact communities (NWS and NOS) Pilot Demonstrations with Partners $15M$5M 3. Coupled modeling systems for rivers, lakes, estuaries (NWS, NOS, OAR, NESDIS) $3M$15M$5M 4. Seamless suite of summit-to-sea water resources forecasts (NWS, NOS, OAR) $4M$20M$5M 5. Advance and integrate observing systems for water resources (NWS, NOS, OAR, NESDIS) $4M$20M$5M Total $15M$100M$40M 11

12. 12 Minimum Recurring Annual Benefit $1,000M Energy $100M Hydropower comprises 75% of Nation’s renewable energy CA research study indicates potential increase of 18% with full use of improved probabilistic forecasts <1% increase in production yields estimated benefit Transportation $200M River commerce transports 90% of Nation’s grain Generates $13.4B in annual spending 1.5% increased efficiencies Agriculture $300M U.S. Agriculture: 80% of fresh water consumption Balance selective withdrawals for irrigation, regional water supply and fisheries Flooding $400M Annual Flood Losses Temporary levees cost $1M per mile Damage reduction via more efficient and effective mitigation Water Services Improvement Plan: Bottom Line Outcomes Minimum Additional Benefits/Year Examples