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© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst Utilities Sector Regulated and Integrated Electric Utilities Gas Pipelines and Gas Utilities
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2 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Utilities Sector Performance Utilities have outperformed the broad index on a 3-year basis. Indexed Total Return (1 Year and 3 Years)
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3 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regulated Utilities Performance The regulated utilities outperform in the first half of a recession. Indexed Total Return (1 Year and 3 Years)
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4 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regulated Utilities Dividend Yield The regulated utilities historically have yielded 80 basis points less than the 10-year Treasury. Right now, at 5.9%, they yield 260 basis points more. 10-Year Treasury Yield Versus Regulated Average Dividend Yield
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5 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Integrated Utilities and Natural Gas Prices The integrated utilities have been roughly correlated with natural gas prices. Indexed Total Return (3 Years)
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6 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regulated Electric Utilities PG&E (PCG) – 1/A Southern (SO) – 2/A Duke (DUK) – 2/B Regulated Gas / Pipeline Spectra (SE) – 1/B Integrated Utilities Entergy (ETR) – 1/B Exelon (EXC) – 1/A FPL (FPL) – 1/A Dominion (D) – 2/B Utilities Coverage and Themes Coverage Dividend Yield PCG; SO Renewables FPL; PCG Transmission PCG?; EXC? (Watch for note soon.) Natural Gas Prices EXC; ETR; D; FPL Carbon Legislation EXC; ETR; FPL; D Natural Gas Infrastructure SE Examples of Themes, Ordered by Exposure or Preference
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© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst Alternative Energy Solar
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8 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Solar and Crude The solar companies are less correlated with crude, as it should be.
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9 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Chinese Solar Versus First Solar The Chinese companies have run on lower polysilicon prices; operating leverage.
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© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst Thank you.
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