1. Overview of Downscaling Approach

2. Hybrid Delta Downscaling Method Performed for each VIC grid cell: Hist. Daily Timeseries Hist. Monthly Timeseries Historic Monthly CDF Bias Corrected Future Monthly CDF Projected Daily Timeseries 1916-2006 1970-1999 30 yr window 1916-2006 “Base Case”

3. WRF Daily Downscaling Method WRF output is first regridded to 1/16 th degree Then, for each VIC grid cell: WRF Daily Time Series WRF Daily CDF Historical VIC Daily CDF Bias Corrected Daily Time Series 1970-1999 2040-2069 1970-1999 2040-2069 1970-1999 The storm size distribution and time series behavior of the simulations comes directly from the daily WRF simulations.

4. Snohomish River Near Monroe, WA

5. Testing

6. Monthly Streamflow

10. Precipitation Extremes

15. Temperature Extremes

20. Resolve issues related to mapping of extremes (in progress) Create a “Raw WRF” product (no bias correction) Downscale reanalysis run and compare to ECHAM5 historical runs (free-running GCM vs. reanalysis intercomparison) Downscale additional GCM scenarios. Remaining Downscaling Tasks

21. Preliminary Flood Results for Selected Watersheds