1. Concepts and tools BONUS BalticAPP: Wellbeing from the Baltic Sea – applications combining natural science and economics, 2015 – 2018.

2. (1) University of Helsinki, Finland (UH), Prof Kari Hyytiäinen (2) Aarhus University, Denmark (AU), Dr Marianne Zandersen (3) Kiel Institute of the World Economy, Germany (IfW), Prof Katrin Rehdanz (4) Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Prof Eija Pouta (5) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden (SMHI), Prof Markus Meier (6) Stockholm University, Sweden (SU), Dr Bo Gustafsson (7) University of Warsaw, Poland (UW), Prof Mikołaj Czajkowski

4. DRIVING FORCES: 1.Global climate projections downscaled to the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), IPCC 2.Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate (SSPs) translated as regional challenges to mitigate eutrophication and manage fisheries in the Baltic sea, IPCC & IIASA

6. PRESSURES: 1.Nutrient loads (agriculture, waste water, other point sources, air pollution, etc.) 2.Fisheries effort

7. Farmer profit Y=px-c Farmer profit Y=px-c Amounts of production animals (cows, pigs, chicken) Inorganic N fertization Inorganic P fertization Other abatement measures inc catch crops, buffer zones, soil preparation, liming Stock of nutrients in soil Wetlands Nutrients to the sea Price of electricity (eurostat, f(RCP)) Food price f(RCP, population, etc) Global supply of P not scarce yet, but may become locally scarce in case of ”Rocky road” narrative Global supply of P not scarce yet, but may become locally scarce in case of ”Rocky road” narrative Reg & glob popul. (IIASA projections) Reg & glob popul. (IIASA projections) Consumption patterns (source?) Land prices Climate change, temporal distribution of rainfall, f(RCP) AGRICULTURE Technical progress, innovation f(SSP) source??

8. STATE: Projections for 2015-2100, physical-biogeochemical RCO-SCOBI model (Meier et al.)

9. Impact on wellbeing: This information is obtained by studying the demand for ecosystem services: Environmental and ecosystem service valuation Existing data (BalticSTERN) & novel valuation study benefit functions for changes in the provision of cultural ecosystem services & provisioning services (fish catches) Link the benefits to the trajectories of sea state (variables of the 3D model -> cost-benefit analysis

11. Response: Paths of nutrient abatement needed to reach and maintain GES Cost-benefit analysis: is GES realistic, reachable or affordable?

12. STATE 2015 2100 GES BASELINE POLICY

13. Provision of ecosystem services and as response to environmental change (Eva Ehrnsten & Alf Norkko) Demonstration: Raymond biochemistry lab, Yale

14. PRODUCTS:  Long-term projections (pressures, state of the sea, costs & benefits) Baseline projections (with alternative socioeconomic pathways) Policy projections (effort needed to reach and maintain GES)  Maps non-use and recreation benefits linked to scenarios spatially explicit recreation sites describing the value of current and future projected values of recreation  Mobile application Recreation hotspots