1. IIASA Projections of SO 2, NO x, NH 3 and VOC Emissions in East Asia up to 2030 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Z. Klimont, J. Cofala, W. Schöpp, M. Amann (IIASA) D. Streets (Argonne Nat. Lab., USA) Y. Ichikawa, S. Fujita (CRIEPI, Japan)

2. IIASA SO 2 emissions in Asia 1984-1998 Source: Streets et al., 2000

3. IIASA SO 2 emissions projections for Asia The 1994 vs. 2000 perspective

4. IIASA A revised energy projection for China Source: ERI, Beijing Changes 1995-2020: Population +25 % GDP+420 % Total energy demand +70 % Coal +50 % Gas +300 % Renewables +30 %

5. IIASA SO 2 concentrations annual mean [  g/m 3 ], WHO limit = 50  g/m 3 2020 with current legislation 1995

6. IIASA Unprotected ecosystems with sulfur deposition above sustainable levels (critical loads) 2020 with current legislation 1995

7. IIASA Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls CLE

8. IIASA RAINS-Asia CD-ROM Available from IIASA: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains Energy use scenarios for 24 countries and 500 LPS Atmospheric dispersion for 5 meteorological years Interactive optimization tool for cost-effective emission control strategies Operational on Windows95/98/NT/2000

9. IIASA A NO x projection for East Asia Source: Klimont et al., IIASA

10. IIASA Emissions of NO x in East Asia (million tons NO x )

11. IIASA Emissions of VOC in East Asia (Mt VOC)

12. IIASA Structure of VOC emissions in 1995 for selected countries

13. IIASA Ratio of NO x to VOC emissions in East Asia 19952030(CLE)

14. IIASA Spatial distribution of NH 3 emissions (kt NH 3 /grid) 19952030

15. IIASA Conclusions Growth of SO 2 and NO x emissions lower than previously estimated, due to –revised economic growth rates, –larger improvements in energy efficiency and –recent emission control legislation. Lifestyle changes and rapid growth of processing industry might lead to significant increase in VOC Present (and possibly future) ammonia emissions dominated by use of urea and ABC fertilizers in China

16. IIASA Slides of this presentation in Powerpoint format are available at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains On the Internet