2. Public Opinion, Political Ideology & Political Socialization Ch. 11 Student notes

3. PUBLIC OPINION Public Opinion - The distribution of people’s beliefs about politics and policy issues Professional polling institutions conduct scientific polling (e.g. Gallup, Pew Research Center). Major newspapers and networks also conduct scientific polls Government created to achieve goals not “do what people want” –Policy at odds with public opinion

4. We don’t know anything but we have an opinion on everything American public lacking knowledge about issues and government. – Nearly one-third do not know the name of the vice president. – Only one-fourth can name their two senators. – Only one-third can name their U.S. representative. – Most do not have a factual knowledge about policy. Only a small percentage can identify a single piece of legislation passed by Congress. Misperceptions about government policies are widespread. Many do not know what is in the Constitution. Education levels have increased but not political knowledge. Sarah Palin thinks she can see Russia from her house!

5. MEASURING OPINION Public Opinion Polling –Interviews or surveys used to gauge and estimate feelings and beliefs of citizenry –Polls help candidates detect preferences –Exit, Straw, Tracking, Push

6. ACCURATE POLLING Characteristics of valid, scientific poll: Randomized sample Representative sample Question wording (unbiased, unambiguous) Large sample size/low margin of error

7. ACCURATE POLLING Questions can’t be leading Rely on a representative sample of the population - small proportion of people who are chosen to represent the whole –1,500 represent US, but LARGER the size, more accurate the poll –Random Sampling: everyone should have an equal probability of being selected as part of the sample Random-digit dialing –Sampling error: +/- 3%

8. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information Role of Polls in American Democracy –Help politicians figure out public preferences. –Polls reflect the policy agenda— problems the people inside and outside of government believe must be addressed.

9. Use of Polls Even accurate and reliable polls can affect politics in a negative way: – Discourages candidates from running if low in polls – Polls find out what voters want and candidates adopt positions and develop images to suit the voters – not a true view of the candidate’s preferences or ideas. – Influence fund-raising

10. WHY LISTEN TO POLLS… Winning! –Politicians need to appeal to masses during elections –Sense of patriotic duty Dealing w/ competitive elections –Desire to get reelected –One up the opponent

11. WHY NOT TO LISTEN TO POLLS… Voting record –Effort to not appear indecisive –“flip-flopper” –Maintain reputation Party leadership –Good favor by maintaining loyalty