1. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4

2. Demographic Transition Model
What is it?
Model that helps explain changes in a country’s demographics
Demographics = population data, e.g., average age, growth rate, income, employment
Each stage characterized by a relationship between birth rates and death rates
Stage 2
Stage 4
Stage 1
Stage 3

3. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2
Stage 4
Stage 1
Stage 3
Stage 1 = Pre-Industrial Stage
Population growth is stable
High death rate
Many diseases
Poor medical care
Poor sanitation
Limited food supply
High birth rate
People have many children because most will die before adulthood
Need large families to work family farms
No family planning (no birth control)
Religious & social norm
All countries were Stage 1 prior to the Industrial Revolution
Currently, there are NO countries at Stage 1

4. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 = Pre-Industrial Stage

5. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2
Stage 4
Stage 1
Stage 3
Stage 2 = Transitional Stage
Population growth increases
at a rapid pace
Declining death rate
Better jobs
Improvements in medical care
Improvements in sanitation
Increased food production
High birth rate
People are still accustomed to producing more children
Have more food & resources to support larger families
Countries that are transitioning to become industrial societies
Sub-Saharan Africa, Guatemala, Nauru, Palestine, Yemen and Afghanistan

6. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2 = Transitional Stage

7. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2 = Transitional Stage

8. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2
Stage 4
Stage 1
Stage 3
Stage 3 = Industrial Stage
Population growth continues
Low death rate
Continued improvements in nutrition,
medicine, and sanitation due to higher
standard of living
Decreasing birth rate
People stop having as many children
because children have a better chance of surviving to adulthood
Preference for smaller families in order to have a higher standard of living
Increased status & opportunities for women (education + jobs)
Increased access to contraception
Factories, commercial farms, some service industries
Botswana, Colombia, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates

9. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 3 = Industrial Stage

10. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 3 = Industrial Stage

11. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2
Stage 4
Stage 1
Stage 3
Stage 4 = Post-Industrial Stage
Stable population size,
near zero-growth
Low death rate
High standard of living
Equal access to good healthcare
Low birth rate
Replacement-level fertility rate
About 2 children per woman
Strong economies, high levels of education, high numbers of working women
Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Brazil, most of Europe, Singapore, South Korea, and the United States

12. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 4 = Post-Industrial Stage