1. January 2012 Christopher Garman Director, Latin America and Emerging Markets Strategy garman@eurasiagroup.net (202) 903 0029 Rousseff: navigating a more challenging global outlook

2. Prepared for Woodrow Wilson Center Rousseff’s resilient approval ratings 1

3. Prepared for Woodrow Wilson Center Legislative reform agenda Approval ProbabilityTiming Structural and Fiscal Reforms Public Sector Pension Regulation70%1H 2012 Public Sector Payroll Cap30%1H 2013 ICMS Reform40%1H 2013 Import ICMS Reform60%1H 2012 Savings Account Reform40%2H 2012 Microeconomic ReformsProbabilityTiming Government procurement reform40%1H 2013 Environmental Licensing60%1H 2012 Foreign Asset Amnesty30%1H 2012 Civil Aviation Liberalization70%2H 2012 Sector Specific ReformsProbabilityTiming Oil Royalty Distribution70%1H 2012 Foreign Landownership Restrictions60%2H 2012 New Mining Code70%1h 2013 Utility Concession Renewal60%2H 2012 Negative Fiscal AgendaProbabilityTiming Pension “Factor” Repeal20%2H 2012 Constitutional Amendment 30020%2H 2012 Amendment 29 Regulation55%1H 2012 2