1. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 1 TBM Cost Estimate Cost Estimate Schedule Approach Tom Mann October 27, 2005

2. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 2 Cost Estimate Approach Identify Scope Develop Work Breakdown Structure and WBS Dictionary Develop cost estimate Establish cost contingency needs based on risks Establish a cost range Develop resource-loaded schedule Identify Scope SNS Power Upgrade 3.0 R&D 3.1 Project Support 3.2 Accelerato r Systems 3.3 Target Systems 3.4 Facilities Constructi on 3.5 Pre Operations 3.6

3. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 3 Work Breakdown Structure

4. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 4 Cost Estimate Approach Cost Estimate Guidelines base on ITER Guidelines for Assembling the Cost Estimate, Schedule and Risks for Submittal of CD-1 for SNS Power Upgrade Project Objective: In support of the CD-1 decision planned for Fall 2005, it is necessary to develop and assemble a sustainable, reviewable cost estimate, schedule, and risk analysis for the SNS Power Upgrade Project (PUP). Your input to support this objective is needed no later than June 30. Background: On November 23, 2004, the Statement of Mission Need for Spallation Neutron Source Proton Beam Power Upgrade Non-Major Systems Acquisition was approved and stated: “The TPC (Total Project Cost) for an SNS power upgrade project has been roughly estimated to be in the $120 – 160 million range.” The document further states that there is “reasonable confidence in this range.” While the requirement for CD-1 is still for an estimate range, the level of detail to support the range must be greater than what currently exists. In general, your estimate must be defendable at an External Independent Review. The estimate should be realistic with a 50% confidence level, that is, there is a 50% chance that the actual costs will be either higher or lower than the cost estimate. In other words, provide your currently best available cost estimate without contingency. Contingency will be added separately based on your input. The cost estimate developed for CD-1 will be maintained under configuration control and serve as the basis for future updates and revisions. Our estimating approach must include backup details adequate to support the WBS level presented in the External Independent Review. Detailed cost estimate sheets (attachment 3) are provided to capture this backup detail information.

5. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 5 Cost Estimate Approach

6. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 6 Cost Estimate Summary by WBS $k, Escalated, burdened

7. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 7 Element of Cost by WBS

8. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 8 Estimate by Phase Sum of Budgeted Cost ($k, escalated, burdened) PhaseTotal Integration 14,538 Design 9,692 Procure/Fab 63,929 Installation 9,387 Testing 4,168 Software 1,601 Construction 8,352 Commissioning 195 R&D 8,187 Project Support 7,813 Total 127,862

9. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 9 Cost Range

10. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 10 SNS Power Upgrade Project Preliminary Summary Schedule Legend MilestoneSummary Activity FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Research & Development Critical Decision Milestones Design 31Mar11 0 Procurement & Fabrication Installation & Testing Integrated Testing & Commissioning 2a 2b 3a 1 3b 4 # Critical Decision Milestone CD-0 Mission Need CD-1 Alt Select & Cost Range CD-2a Approve Long Lead Procurement Budget CD-2b Approve Performance Baseline CD-3a Start Long Lead Procurements CD-3b Start Construction CD-4 Project Closeout Cryomodule Production Design Review Start Cryomodule & IRP Installation Complete Cryomodule & IRP Installation Start Commissioning Issue Cryomodule Purchase Order Start Cryomodule Production Receive 1 st Cryomodule Receive Last Cryomodule Issue Cryomodule RFP Ion Source Injection Stripper Foil Hg Target Complete IRP Procurements Facility Shutdown

11. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 11 Schedule Summary Summary Schedule Contains Ninety (90) Activities Detailed Schedule Contains Over Six Hundred Fifty (650) Activities

12. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 12 Budget Authority by Fiscal Year -25 -1,423 8,760 2,739 15,115 -1,603 8,575

13. Power Upgrade Project SNS September 21-22, 2005 13 Cost Estimate Approach Suggested Plan –Detailed week to week plan to meet March 06 Cost Review –Document Scope  Parameters List  Conceptual Design Report  Focus on Deliverables –Input existing cost estimate data base into ITER format  Complete Base Cost Estimate  Establish Cost Range –Risk Assessment –Contingency Analysis –Schedule with Critical Path –Resource Load Schedule –External Review Committee