1. Performance of COSMO-LEPS over the Alpine region Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, Fabrizio Nerozzi, Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SMR, Bologna, Italy ICAM/MAP Brig, 19-23 May 2003

2. youngest EPS middle EPS oldest EPS COSMO-LEPS suite @ ECMWF start of COSMO-LEPS integrations +120 +132 +144 clustering times day 153 members 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 n –1 n n+1 +2 +3 +4 +5

3. COSMO-LEPS Dim 2 Initial conditions Dim 1 ECMWF LM precipitation scenarios PROBABILITY MAPS

4. COSMO-LEPS INTEGRATION DOMAIN LOKAL MODELL 10 KM HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION

5. COSMO-LEPS Lokal Model scenarios Probability Maps  prob of 24h rainfall exceeding 20,50,100,150 mm  prob of 24h Tmax exceeding 20,30,35,40 C  prob of 24h Tmin below -10,-5,0,+5 C  prob of 24h Vmax exceeding 10,15,20,25 m/s  prob of 24h snowfall exceeding 1,5,10,20 mm of equivalent water Probability Maps  prob of 24h rainfall exceeding 20,50,100,150 mm  prob of 24h Tmax exceeding 20,30,35,40 C  prob of 24h Tmin below -10,-5,0,+5 C  prob of 24h Vmax exceeding 10,15,20,25 m/s  prob of 24h snowfall exceeding 1,5,10,20 mm of equivalent water Deterministic products for each of the 5 LM runs: Precipitation Mean Sea level pressure 700 hPa Geopotential 850 hPa Temperature Deterministic products for each of the 5 LM runs: Precipitation Mean Sea level pressure 700 hPa Geopotential 850 hPa Temperature Transfer to Cosmo Partners and other interested Member States

6. Elbe Flood 12-13 August 2002

7. 11/08 12UTC

8. 12/08 00UTC

9. 12/08 12UTC

10. 13/08 00UTC

11. 13/08 12UTC

12. Observed precipitation 12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC Courtesy of Ulrich Damrath

13. Observed precipitation 12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC

14. oldest EPS middle EPS youngest EPS 00 12 00 12 00 12 8 9 10 11 12 13 +72 +96 +120 +84+108 I.C. and B.C. 5 LM runs +72 +96

15. FC 08/08 12UTCFC 09/08 00UTC FC 09/08 12UTCANALYSIS 13/08 00UTC Z700

16. 124 5 11 6 7ana Z700COSMOLEPS

17. obs 124 5 7 6 11 TPCOSMOLEPS

18. COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation > 50mm/24h > 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h > 20mm/24h W

19. NW COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation > 50mm/24h > 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h > 20mm/24h

20. Observed precipitation 12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC

21. ECMWF EPS probability of precipitation > 50mm/24h> 20mm/24h Youngest EPS > 20mm/24h> 50mm/24h Super-ensemble

22. Lokal Modell deterministic run 12/08 00UTC Fc +6 +30 Courtesy of Ulrich Damrath

23. obs LM +6 +30

24. Fine

25. Size RM Date Time Lag CL 1: 124 13 2002/08/09 12 0 CL 2: 11 25 2002/08/08 12 24 CL 3: 5 42 2002/08/08 12 24 CL 4: 6 32 2002/08/08 12 24 CL 5: 7 18 2002/08/08 12 24 Size RM Date Time Lag CL 1: 124 13 2002/08/09 12 0 CL 2: 11 25 2002/08/08 12 24 CL 3: 5 42 2002/08/08 12 24 CL 4: 6 32 2002/08/08 12 24 CL 5: 7 18 2002/08/08 12 24 8912111013 EPS 8 12UTC + 9 00UTC + 9 12UTC

26. Z700 ANALYSIS 13/08 12UTC 12/08 12UTC 13/08 00UTC

27. 12411 56 7obs 12

28. COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation > 50mm/24h > 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h > 20mm/24h W 12

29. NW COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation > 50mm/24h > 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h > 20mm/24h 12

30. ECMWF EPS probability of precipitation > 50mm/24h> 20mm/24h Youngest EPS > 20mm/24h> 50mm/24h Super-ensemble 12

31. obs LM +6 +30 12