1. © Crown copyright Met Office Stratospheric Extension to the CHFP “S-CHFP” and links to WCRP-SPARC Adam Scaife WGSIP July 2010

2. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (i) Provide a baseline assessment of our seasonal prediction capabilities using the best available models of the climate system and data for initialisation. (ii) Provide a framework for assessing of current and planned observing systems, and a test bed for integrating process studies and field campaigns into model improvements (iii) Provide an experimental framework for focused research on how various components of the climate system interact and affect one another (iv) Provide a test bed for evaluating IPCC class models in seasonal prediction mode.

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Dynamical forecast Dynamical forecast + 70hPa stat fcast (Christiansen 2005) Why S-CHFP? (Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001) Surface wind at 60N (Ineson and Scaife, 2009) (Marshall and Scaife 2009) QBO teleconnection ENSO teleconnection

4. © Crown copyright Met Office Stratospheric extension of the CHFP Hi Top Hindcasts Parallel to WGSIP-CHFP Extended models Initialising extra atmosphere, better represented stratosphere Integrations 4 month lead times (1 st November and 1st May start dates) 2 seasons (DJF and JJA) Case study years: 1989 onwards At least 6 members per year, preferably more

5. © Crown copyright Met Office Stratospheric extension of the CHFP Basic Diagnostics Monthly means of: surface T, near surface T, precip, pmsl Monthly means of: t (10, 30, 50, 700, 850hPa) u, v (10, 30, 50, 200, 850hPa) Z (10, 30, 50, 500, 850, 1000hPa) Daily values: u, T (10, 30hPa), near surface T, sea level P Extensions Daily precip, Z500 and monthly means to match CMIP5 protocols 12 month forecasts 4 seasons, 10 members 1979 onwards

6. © Crown copyright Met Office Increased number of participants: InstituteModelResolutionModel top ReferenceContact Met Office HC HadGEM N96L85 N96L38 85km 40km Martin et al 2006, J. Clim., 19, 1217-1301 Adam.scaife@metoffice.gov.uk Meteo France Arpege 4.4 + OPA L91 L31 0.01hPa 10hPa Gueremy et al, 2005, Tellus, 57A, p308-319 Michel.deque@meteo.fr jean.philippe.piedelievre@meteo.fr ECMWF IFS L91 L62 0.01hPa 5hPa t.stockdale@ecmwf.int CCCMA CMAM T63L71 T63L41 ~100km ~31km Scinocca et al 2008, ACP, 8, 7055-7074 John.Scinocca@ac.gc.ca George.Boer@ec.gc.ca NCEP CFS v1 L64 ? ? Saha et al, J.Clim., vol.19, no.15, p3483-3517 Hualu.Pan@noaa.gov Judith.perlwitz@noaa.gov.uk CPTEC ?? ?pnobre@cptec.inpe.br IFM- GEOMAR ECHAM5 T63L31 T63L47 10hPa 0.01hPa Roeckner et al 2003, MPI report No. 349, 127pp Manzini et al 2006, J. Clim., 19, 3863-3881. nkeenlyside@ifm-geomar.de

7. © Crown copyright Met Office SPARC interaction General skill analysis Using standard probabilistic verification measures for different regions - WGSIP Predictions of annular modes? Sudden warmings and intraseasonal predictability Particularly in early part of forecasts ENSO teleconnections Strong evidence of an effect on Europe, perhaps SH too? Interannual predictability from the QBO? Not all models will simulate a QBO but all will initialise it Blocking frequency? Do the high-top models exhibit better blocking stats? Are they linked to SSWs? Attended the SPARC SSG in Oct 2009 on behalf of WGSIP Presented material on strat-trop coupling in S2D prediction Presented WGSIP CHFP and plan for Strat HFP Enthusiastic response - SPARC keen to take part in analysis

8. © Crown copyright Met Office Timeseries of winter NAO Forecast NAO from forecasts around 1 st Nov Observed NAO (EMSLP gridded, Ansell and Allan 2006) Observed NAO (station data, Jones et al 1997)

9. © Crown copyright Met Office Current Status Several groups are doing or have done hindcasts with vertically extended models: Meteo France – COMPLETE ECMWF – underway – complete by Dec 2010 UKMO Hadley Centre – underway – complete by Aug 2010 CCCMA – underway – complete by Dec 2010 CPTEC – complete by early 2011 IfM-GEOMAR – complete by Autumn 2010 DATA repository: CIMA (Carolina Vera) kindly agreed to host data parallel to CHFP First files to be uploaded in next few weeks

10. © Crown copyright Met Office SPARC - DynVar Workshop SPARC DynVar activity is part of the Stratospheric Process and their Role in Climate Project (SPARC). SPARC is a core project of the World Climate Research Program “To determine the dependence of the mean climate, climate variability, and climate change on stratospheric dynamics as represented in Climate Models” Plan to use CMIP5 and S-CHFP results The SPARC DynVar Activity will hold its 2nd Workshop in Boulder, Colorado, USA, 3-5 November 2010 Hosted by CIRES and NOAA in Boulder Colorado, will include a talk on seasonal and stratosphere and S-CHFP For further information and limited travel funds available to support attendance: elisa.manzini@zmaw.deelisa.manzini@zmaw.de