1. 1 OA:GD juni 04 CP-15, Karin Mossberg, 2005-09-01 Factors Influencing the Selection of Method(s) Jan Foghelin and Karin Mossberg Division of Defence Analysis The Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI

2. 2 OA:GD juni 04 CP-15, Karin Mossberg, 2005-09-01 Agenda The normative approach Methods used by OA at FOI Important factors when solving real problems: The problem-owner (customer) The analyst Discussion

3. 3 OA:GD juni 04 CP-15, Karin Mossberg, 2005-09-01 A normative approach of choosing method Nature of the problem – mess, problem, puzzle Aim of the study – discover, create, derive a result Information sources – observations, interviews,... Uncertainties – are they known? dissolvable? Resources – experts, time, money,... Validation – are there any requirements The method

4. 4 OA:GD juni 04 CP-15, Karin Mossberg, 2005-09-01 Problem formulation Problem formulation Generating alternative Generating alternative Analysis Alternative assessment Alternative assessment Recommendations/ Implementation Recommendations/ Implementation Carrying out a study due to the System Analysis scheme... … and examples of methods used in the different parts Alternative to the SA-scheme: Soft System Methodology SODA/JOURNEY Problem formulation: Structured brainstorming System Dynamics (qual.) Open Interviews Generating alternatives: Lateral thinking Games (explorative) Morphologic Analysis Collecting data: Literature studies Interviews Questionnaires Participating observations Observations Analysis: Statistical analysis Cost-Effect analysis Analytical games Discrete simulations Continuous simulations System Dynamics Game Theory Bayesian Networks Uncertainties: Sensitivity Analysis Variation analysis Information collection Changed system layout Assessment: Multi Criteria Methods Decision Theory Optimisation Delphi-method Magnitude Estimate Scaling Analytical Hierarchy Process Presentation and implementation: Argumentation Analysis Rhetoric Red – High competence at FOI Green – Used at FOI Blue – Used rarely at FOI

5. 5 OA:GD juni 04 CP-15, Karin Mossberg, 2005-09-01 Customer, problem- owner Analyst, Problem Substance, environment Important factors when choosing method in reality Analyst, analyst's organization

6. 6 OA:GD juni 04 CP-15, Karin Mossberg, 2005-09-01 Customer involvement when choosing method Delegate choice of method to analyst (black box) A genuine interest to understand the methods and their impacts A wish to be actively involved in the study process A wish to use a certain method Restrictions on resources (money, time,...) An expectation of a predetermined solution of the problem

7. 7 OA:GD juni 04 CP-15, Karin Mossberg, 2005-09-01 The analyst Background of the analysts The historical experiences of what have worked or not ”Normal” type of problems ”Culture”, e.g. definition of OA (hard vs soft) Risk averse or curiosity

8. 8 OA:GD juni 04 CP-15, Karin Mossberg, 2005-09-01 Conclusions There are lot of factors influencing the choice of method, among others – the customer’s and analyst’s expectations and traditions. It is not always necessary to find the best method, often it is enough to avoid the bad ones. Questions or comments?