1. Tapio Levä & Antti Riikonen, Aalto University tapio.leva@aalto.fi, www.leva.fi IEEE-SIIT 2013, 24–26 September 2013, Sophia-Antipolis, France Diffusion of Internet protocols – Measurement framework and empirical analysis of the Finnish mobile market

2. Background and motivation Internet is a unique environment for innovation diffusion distributed and unregulated  diffusion is a market-based process Deployment of Internet protocols occurs through several successive steps involves multiple stakeholders with diverse economic goals Measuring diffusion in different deployment steps is important for understanding the dynamics of protocol deployment analysing the success* of Internet protocols * RFC 5218: a "successful" protocol is one that is used for its original purpose and at the originally intended scale (Thaler & Aboba, 2008). Thaler, D., & Aboba, B. (2008). What Makes for a Successful Protocol? RFC 5218 (Informational), July 2008.

3. Research question, objectives and scope Question: How to measure the diffusion of Internet protocols in the different steps of protocol deployment*? Objectives: Describe protocol deployment as a (measurable) process Develop a measurement framework Apply the framework for measuring how a set of 11 protocols has gradually spread into the Finnish mobile market Scope: Internet protocols standardized at the IETF (Internet standards) Client-side deployment for individual end users (consumers) * Protocol deployment is a process during which a protocol is advanced from the (first) specification into the actual use in the Internet (Levä & Suomi, 2013). Levä T., Suomi H. (2013). Techno-economic feasibility analysis of Internet protocols: Framework and tools. Computer Standards & Interfaces, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 76-88.

4. What kind of beast a protocol is? Protocol is a software component… -Not a final SW product but a part/enabler of it …implemented in a SW product… -Operating system (kernel) -Middleware (e.g., a Java library) -Application...installed in a HW product. Protocol diffusion is linked to the diffusion of SW/HW products containing the protocol TLS IPv6 HTTP RTP TCP

5. Framework for measuring protocol deployment 5 Protocol (End users) Pre-installationUpdate installationPost-installation SW & HW (SW & HW vendors) Implementation Acquisition Adoption Availability level Capability level Usage level SW (SW vendors) HW (End users) SW (End users) SW update (End users) Deployment steps Deployment modelsDeployment measures in of % of products containing protocol % of population with capability to use protocol % of population using protocol = = = GAP GAP* * Named as assimilation gap by Fichman and Kemerer (1999). Fichman, R. G., & Kemerer, C. F. (1999). The illusory diffusion of innovation: an examination of assimilation gaps. Information Systems Research, 10(3), 255–275.

6. TCP IPv4 UDP SMTP TLS SIP IMAP4 RTS P HTTP RTP POP3 Application of the framework into the Finnish mobile market Research process 6 Diffusion of 11 protocols into the Finnish mobile market from 2003 to 2012 1.Pre-analysis  focus on pre-installation model 2.Identification of existence of protocols in handset models 3.Collection and analysis of diffusion data 1.Mobile handset models on sale = Availability level 2.Mobile handsets in use = Capability level 3.Actual usage = Usage level

7. Application of the framework into the Finnish mobile market Measurement setup and data 7 Protocol data: Existence of protocols in handset models identified based on other capabilities Diffusion data: Longitudinal, cross-sectional data collected from Finland in 2003-2012.

8. Application of the framework into the Finnish mobile market General protocol diffusion patterns 8 Four groups linked to apps WAP browsing HTML browsing Email Real-time comm. 3G bundling allowed Raise of Android & iOS Very little basic phones sold Significantly lower than capability levels Follow availability levels with delay

9. Application of the framework into the Finnish mobile market Diffusion of EMAIL 9 26% 50% Assimilation gap Handset models with EMAIL became more popular than models without EMAIL DISCLAIMER: The different datasets (y-axis) are not fully comparable with each other. Gap

10. Limitations and future research Limitations The framework is created client-side in mind The datasets are not fully comparable Post- and update installation models not analysed quantitatively Information of existence of protocols not found for all models Analysis does not provide direct explanations to diffusion patterns Future research Improve the framework: terminology, measures, data sets, gaps Validate extendability of framework to server-side / other markets Improve usage analysis by measuring mobile Internet traffic Compare the diffusion patterns of different deployment models 10

11. Conclusion Developed framework enables measuring diffusion during different steps of protocol deployment -Implementation  Availability = Nr of products containing protocol -Acquisition  Capability = Nr of consumers with protocol capability -Adoption  Usage = Nr of consumers using the protocol Protocol diffusion is driven by applications -WAP browsing, HTML browsing, email, VoIP, video streaming Supply-side decisions affect the diffusion of protocol capability -Implement protocols both in high numbers and on the most popular models Assimilation gap: capability to use may not translate into usage -Protocols are often acquired unintentionally alongside handset acquisitions -Acquisition is a poor proxy for adoption  measure actual use! 11

12. Thank you! tapio.leva@aalto.fi www.leva.fi 12