1. Rebellion, political violence, and shadow crimes in the Bangsamoro: BCMS General Report 2011-2014 PINGO Forum International Alert UK : Philippine Programmes 15 September 2015

2. Who are we? We are a team of peace building researchers, advocates, mediators, and educator-trainers working to reverse cycles of vertical and horizontal conflict in the Philippines. We are a registered charity headquartered in London, UK. There are 26 other country programs worldwide. In the Philippines we provide research and policy analysis for both the GPH-MILF and the GPH-NDFP peace processes. We also work with rural groups, specifically with indigenous peoples on conflict-sensitive economic governance (CSEG) and resource-use management programs (RUMP) We also work with the private sector, with MINBC and the MBC, and especially with the energy sector. We are not a member of the International Contact Group (ICG).

3. Causes of violent conflict, 2011-2014

4. . Vertical and horizontal conflict, 2011-2014

5. Number of incidentsConflict deaths

6. . Number of conflict incidents involving the MILF (2011-2014)

7. . Violent conflicts involving BIFF forces (2011-2014)

8. Rido and Election-Related Violent Incidents, by Province, 2012-2013 PROVINCE RIDOELECTION-RELATED 2012201320122013 Basilan 4102 Lanao del Norte 21413 Lanao del Sur 617414 Maguindanao 1012515 North Cotabato 54110 Sultan Kudarat 1010 Sulu 1821 Tawi 0001 Zamboanga del Norte 0000 Zamboanga del Sur 1000 Zamboanga Sibugay 0000

9. Land-Related and Drug-Related Incidents, by Province, 2012-2013 PROVINCE LANDDRUGS 2012201320122013 Basilan 1322 Lanao del Norte 1200 Lanao del Sur 1236 Maguindanao 3118 North Cotabato 7800 Sultan Kudarat 1100 Sulu 1113 Tawi 0123 Zamboanga del Norte 0000 Zamboanga del Sur 0000 Zamboanga Sibugay 0000

10. . Violence incidence per month (2011-2014)

11. Temporal trends Rise in violent incidents in the ARMM is pronounced during April-May, from 2011-2014. The spike in violence coincides with the holding of elections and the period prior to the opening of the classes. Types of violence include those related to political and extra-judicial issues. The second spike in violence normally occurs from July-August, which coincides with the Muslim holy season of Ramadan and the agricultural lean months prior to the onset of the main rice harvest (wet season) in late September and the entire month of October. The same period is also witness to extreme climatic variations. You will note a spike in violence in the month of October 2013 that coincided with the barangay elections and the eruption of the Coco Rasuman pyramiding scam.

12. Takeaways? Alert raised the phenomenon of transition-induced violence long before the Al-Barka and Mamasapano incidents. ( Inclusive peace 2009, BCMS general report 2014). We underscored the violent transition before and after Mamasapano (NDLR, Sept 2014; PDI-TOT Feb 1, 2015; BCMS quarterly data sheets 2014). In short, we argued that violent conflict was due “to get worse before it gets better.” (“spoilers delight” and the “black swan” phenomenon. We exposed the other triggers of violent conflict that had very little to do with rebellion or vertical conflict, and more to do with clan feuding, shadow crimes, and criminal violence. (Inclusive peace 2009, BCMS general report 2014, Conflict strings 2014, VII 2014). We called attention to the rise in conflict incidents associated with the BIFF a year before the Mamasapano incident. Horizontal violence dominated the conflict landscape from 2011-2013, but increased BIFF attacks tipped the scales in favour of vertical violence by the end of 2014. Nevertheless, the enormous human cost arising from rebellion-related political violence, in contrast to other violent incidents, underscores the importance of retiring the GPH-MILF conflict!

13. MAMASAPANO cluster map

14. Mamasapano cluster: incidents by causes, 2014

15. MAMASAPANO: Costs of Violence (2014)