1. Authorised Financial Services Provider – FSP No: 859

2. International & Local Economies - Whereto are we Sailing? Presented by: Dawie Roodt 6 November 2008

3. Where Did it All Begin?

4. Nasdaq Bubble U.S. Interest Rate Source: I-Net, Efficient Research, 2008 Subprime Market Emerges….

5. Subprime Housing Market ‘Subprime’ = –A loan that is offered at a rate above prime (0.1% - 0.6% higher) to individuals who do not qualify for prime rate loans. …… “NINJA” loans

6. It’s All In The Packaging Subprime Loan RISK CAPITAL Sell Re-sell Sell

7. Subprime Bubble Bursts Credit Crises Nasdaq Bubble U.S. Interest Rate Inflation Source: I-Net, Efficient Research, 2008

8. Consequences….. U.S. Institutions –Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch bankrupt or taken over –AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bailed out U.K. & Europe –Northern Rock Iceland = Bankrupt! Credit Market Freeze……

9. Emergency Rescue Plans U.S. –$700bn bailout package –Additional Interest rate cuts (100bp) –Fed buys commercial paper –Fed doubles its auctions to banks ($900bn) –Etc. U.K. & Europe –U.K. £50bn purchase of preference shares –BOE & ECB Interest rate cut (50bp) & more to follow.. –Guarantees private & retail deposits G7 Meeting IMF Germany €400bn China Cuts i% $$$

10. Will It Work…..? Financial Markets Real Economy

11. What About Us?

12. Excellence in SA Banking Sector SA Banks Locally: No Direct Exposure International: Limited Exposure Thorough Assessment by Registrar of Banks in July 08 : “financial system is sound” International Comparison on Safety of Banks : SA is 15 th out of 134

13. Where Will It Impact?

14. Dollar Strength Source: I-Net, 2008

15. Commodity Prices Source: I-Net, 2008

16. Rand Weakness Source: I-Net, 2008

17. Interest Rate Advantage Source: Efficient Research, 2008

18. Slowing International Demand Source: SARS, 2008 Other 8.0% Recession?? Slower Growth??

19. What Do We Export? Source: SARS, 2008 Mining Manufacturing

20. Balance of Payments Source: SARS and own calculations

21. Source: SARB, 2008 C/A Deficit Funding “Hot Money” -DANGER-

22. Still Positive on SA Growth Source: StatsSA and own calculations Average: 3.0%

23. To The Future Stricter Regulation & Control More Protectionism, Political Tension Slowdown in Western Demand, Increase in Eastern Consumption Looming Inflation Pressures.. Monetary Policy Changes – Monetary Aggregates - Higher Interest Rates Weaker Western Currencies Stronger European Integration

24. A Changing World West becomes more Socialist East becomes less Socialist

25. www.efgroup.co.za Authourised Financial Services Provider – FSP No: 859