1. Measure of System Effectiveness Missile Defense System By Alfred Terris 054 3010050 terris@zahav.net.il UNCL:ASSIFIED1

2. Method for Estimating Effectiveness of a Missile Defense System Utilization of Time Estimates of Processes in order to Determine the Effectiveness of a Missile Defense System against a given type of Threat 2UNCL:ASSIFIED

3. Definition System Effectiveness: Number of enemy threats destroyed in a continuous wave attack - no time interval between enemy threats. (This is a type of attack that can be initiated from a multiple rocket launcher mounted on a vehicle UNCL:ASSIFIED3

4. Phases of Threat Engagement 1.Detection and Classification of the Threat 2.Decision to Engage the Threat (Assign Weapon to Threat) 3.Assess Results of Engagement (Reengage Same Threat or new Threat) UNCL:ASSIFIED4

5. Phase 1 – Detection and classification of the Threat This phase starts with the threat at range at which it can be detected with a given single scan probability (e.g. 90%). This requires a knowledge of: – the target characteristics (cross-section), – search system characteristics (scan time, beam size, receiver sensitivity, power) This phase includes the functions of threat analysis (can this threat be intercepted by the defensive system), assigning the threat to a defensive system 5UNCL:ASSIFIED

6. Phase 2 – Decision to Intercept Enemy Missile Tracking of Target By Weapon Control Sensor Decision to Launch Interceptor based upon geometry, evaluation of situation UNCL:ASSIFIED6

7. Phase 3 - Destroy Enemy Missile Launch Interceptor missile or employ other suitable means to destroy enemy missile Evaluate effectiveness of weapon (is enemy missile intact?) If enemy missile is intact, can it be reengaged prior to arriving at its target? UNCL:ASSIFIED7

8. Phase 3 - Destroy Enemy Missile (Continued) Engage Next Enemy Missile in Sequence – Designate next enemy missile to Interceptor – Launch Interceptor missile or employ other suitable means to destroy enemy missile UNCL:ASSIFIED8

9. Attack Geometry & Sequence Sequence of EventsGeometry UNCL:ASSIFIED9

10. Methodology Requires Designers To Provide Parameters/Error Sources 1.Probability of Single Scan Detection (function of power, pulses on target per scan, ECM, etc) 2.Time to establish target path vs accuracy 3.Alignment errors between search and missile guidance radar 4.Missile kill probability vs expected miss 5.And others UNCL:ASSIFIED10

11. Flexibility of Methodology Methodology can be implemented in the form of differential equations and resultant analytic solutions Methodology can be implemented in the form of a simulation UNCL:ASSIFIED11

12. Lessons To Be Learned Which system parameters, if improved, provide the greatest system improvement Does the expected system performance justify the cost of the system Sensitivity of system performance to small changes in threat parameters UNCL:ASSIFIED12