1. Framework and assessment methodology for policy coherence for development: Draft Report for OECD 16 th June, Paris Nick Bozeat

2. Presentation Overview  Introduction  Existing assessment tools relevant to the application and the assessment of PCD  A general framework for assessing the progress of PCD  Measuring the progress of PCD in specific sectors  Recommendations

3. Introduction  Need for PCD clear, taken as starting point  Report considers evaluation of PCD, and  Evaluation to improve PCD  Key challenges: –evaluation has scrutiny and learning objectives and needs motivation –PCD one factor affecting development –PCD at national level one component of PCD

4. Existing relevant assessment tools  Baseline assessment: –the assessment of the presence of PCD processes in OECD countries is informed through peer reviews. There is scope for the application of process evaluation and benchmarking. –The conditions that pertain in developing countries can be informed by analyses of secondary source data and case studies. –The links between member state policies and effects in developing countries can be informed by substantive theory and research, expert panels and the categorization of developing countries.

5. …continued  Prospective evaluation: –the identification of anticipated economic, social and environmental impacts on developing countries can be informed by theories of change, logic models, in some cases econometric models and scenario development. –The identification of the costs and financial returns of policies and initiatives can be informed by cost benefit analysis, monetization of social impacts and monetization of environmental impacts. –The identification of risks and trade-offs can be informed by risk assessment and multi-criteria analysis.

6. …continued  Retrospective evaluation : –The identification of economic, social and environmental impacts can be informed by indicator systems, social surveys, business surveys, environmental surveys, analyses of secondary source data and econometric analysis. –The retrospective assessment of the processes that increase or decrease PCD can be informed by: case studies in OECD countries; case studies in developing countries; comparative studies and peer reviews. –The identification of coherent, incoherent, conflicting and reinforcing effects can be informed by case studies in developing countries and multi-sectoral research.

7. …continued  ‘Composite’ assessment and evaluation methods that are occasionally applicable,  These include: Environmental Impact Assessment; Strategic Environmental Assessment; Poverty Impact Assessment; Aid for trade accountability tool; and Trade Sustainability Impact Assessments.  The European Commission approach to the Impact Assessment of its main policy, financial and legislative proposals is also useful to the evaluation of PCD.

8. A general framework for assessing PCD  Relevant success criteria: progress in developing countries –Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). –‘Capitals’ approach. –Convergence –Progress with respect to ‘global public goods’

9. …continued  Relevant success criteria: application of processes in OECD member states –The three phase ‘PCD cycle’ that provides a potential basis for assessing the application of PCD processes in member states. –The definition of PCD and hence the ‘levels’ that derive from the OECD’s horizontal programme on policy coherence

10. …continued  Evaluation methods and conditions to improve the application of PCD –explicit consideration of the repercussions of sectoral policy choices on developing countries at the time policies are being developed/ revised (and this being a requirement) –the sharing of results of such assessments through peer reviews; –consultations being required between policy makers at sectoral level and those responsible for development aid; –multilateral negotiations anticipating explicitly the effects of policy choices on MDGs; and, –developing countries generating evidence on the foreseen and unforeseen consequences of sectoral policy choices.

11. …continued  Evaluation methods and conditions to assess the progress of PCD –a requirement to retrospectively examine key sectoral policies and their effects on development goals; –arrangements for oversight at country level of the interactions between sectoral policies insofar as they affect development goals; –a programme of evaluation work at multilateral level focused on the most pressing instances of policy incoherence.

12. Measuring the progress of PCD in Agriculture  Short- and medium-term effects are reasonably easy to anticipate and measure, subject to uncertainties in climatic conditions (droughts, floods etc) and crop failures, as data on food exports and prices and associated employment and income are good.  Long-term consequences of policy instruments are more difficult to anticipate because of vulnerabilities to climate change and possible changes in diet, demand, environmental conditions and transport costs. These factors may be strongly influenced by policies in OECD member states.

13. Measuring the progress of PCD in Migration  Econometric models have the potential to help anticipate the impact of policies on coherence. But methods for predicting migration flows and the consequences of policy changes are imprecise and there is a problem of poor data on migration flows, actual remittances, and the numbers of illegal migrants.  The effects of policies on different types of countries should be distinguished depending upon historic and geographical links and differentials in levels of GDP per capita.

14. Recommendations  Research on key linkages  Comparisons between PCD in OECD Member States via checklists and clusters of peer reviews  Emphasis ex ante evaluation where policy options exist as part of policy formulation

15. DISCUSSION