1. Overview of ARS Presentations and Review of EI Data Sets AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

2. Overview Part 1 (Today) –WRAP Strategic Plan, Phases 1 & 2 –Review of Emissions Inventory data used as inputs for interim modeling efforts –Review of basic EI summaries –Suggestions for better resolution of EI data Part 2 (Today) –Incorporating monitoring, modeling and EI data into AoH analysis –Discussion of regional site clusters Part 3 (Tomorrow) –Review of AoH report outline

3. WRAP Strategic Plan Phase I 2003-05 Phase II 2005-07 Purpose: Dry run for Phase II. Refine and apply Phase I approaches for SIP/TIP purposes. Scale:Regional.Regional and subregional. Apportionment: 96/02 source contributions. Areas each plan to address. 2002 source contributions. Reduction obligations. Strategies:Identify options, screen.Cost/benefit, select, design. Communication:Public education.Public acceptance. Major State/Tribal submittals: 2002 emission inventory.Modeling run specifications.

4. Phase I – Data Sets Emissions Inventories –Currently available Modeling Data –RMC to present some results tomorrow (9/22), more by November Monitoring Data –IMPROVE aerosol data available. DRI to present regression analyses at AoH workgroup meeting in November.

5. Emissions Data Set EPA 2002 NEI not available until 12/05 → WRAP facilitated development of “interim” 2002 Emissions –Point –Area –Mobile (On-Road & Non-Road) –Road Dust (Paved & Unpaved) –Fire –Windblown Dust –Biogenics –Modeling Domain Boundary Conditions

6. Point and Area Sources (EH Pechan) SectorWRAP StatesCENRAP States Point Sources EGUsETS/CEM data and EIA-767 based estimates for 2002 WRAP 1996 point source file Copper smeltersSO 2 emissions provided by smelter companies Not applicable Non-utilities, non-smelterIAS model projections from 1996 to 2002 Year 2000 facility-level SO 2 emissions substituted for major 9-State emitters IAS model projection from 1996 to 2002 Area SourcesApplied 1999-2002 growth factors to 1999 NEI area source emission estimates EI includes US States, Canada and Mexico

7. Mobile Sources (ENVIRON) Emissions were estimated for the 1996 base year and four future years – 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018 –2003 Emissions used for “interim” 2002 On-road (EPA MOBILE6 and PART5) Off-road (EPA NONROAD2000) Road Dust (interpolated between 1996 and 2018) One known limitation: –For off-road emissions, NONROAD2000 overestimates VOC (~13%), NOx (~35%), PM2.5 (~28%) and SO2 (~72%). –CA provided estimates directly, so these errors don’t apply to CA EI includes US States, Canada and Mexico

8. EI Coverage for Point, Area and Mobile Sources

9. Fire Emissions (WRAP) Actual 2002 wildland fire and prescribed fire emission inventories –Specific location, date, size and fuel loading for each fire event. EI includes WRAP states only

10. Windblown Dust (RMC) Modeled using: –Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) BELD3, NALCC, NLCD –Soil Characteristics STATSGO; Soil Landscape of Canada; Intl. Soil Reference and Information Centre –Meteorological Data 2002 36-km MM5 –Agricultural Data BELD3, RUSLE2, CTIC EI includes modeling domain

11. Biogenics Emissions (RMC) Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS3) –Vegetation Data: Biogenic Emissions Landuse Database (BELD3) –Meteorological Data (MM5v3) Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS3) EI includes US states

12. Boundary Conditions (RMC) RMC: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/inputs/gifs/BC/vistas.geoschem.mean.so4.gifhttp://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/inputs/gifs/BC/vistas.geoschem.mean.so4.gif

13. Pie Chart Representation of Area Emissions by State/Province

14. Pie Chart Representation of Fire Emissions by State

15. Gridded Representation of CMAQ Wind Blown Dust Model Emissions Inputs RMC: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/wb_dust2002/scen_d/PMFINE/PMFINE_yearly.scen_d.gifhttp://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/wb_dust2002/scen_d/PMFINE/PMFINE_yearly.scen_d.gif

16. County-level Representation of CO Area Source NO X

17. WRAP States Representation of Emissions

19. California Emissions Comparison EI comparison: WRAP interim 2002 and CA reported 2003 Differences in EI reporting: –Differences in point and area binning –CA reports reactive organic gases (ROG), WRAP reports volatile organic compounds (VOC) - specific pollutants differ in some cases –CA reports SOx, WRAP reports SO2 EI comparison reasonable, consistent with known differences

20. California Emissions Comparison

21. EI Temporal and Spatial Resolution 2002 interim modeling efforts utilize temporal and spatial resolution of EI data for states and boundary conditions Level of detail of EI temporal and spatial resolution in summary products to be determined by AoH Work Group (opinions?) Following examples can be generated for all pollutant sources/states

22. ↑ ~9000

24. CO Area Source NO X (Hatch)

25. CO Area Source NO X (Density)