1. Differentials in desires and realisation: 1st, 2nd and 3rd child Marion Burkimsher

2. Data sources used previously Human fertility database (country comparison) Swiss birth registration (BEVNAT) Swiss census 2000 (biological children, years born) Swiss Household Panel European Social Survey Fertility and Family Survey (Switzerland 1994)

3. Questions addressed in EFG analysis Young (22-32) childless women (& men): what differentials in desire for having at least 1 child? Women (& men) 22-45: what differentials in transition to first birth? Women (& men) 22-42 with 1 child: what differentials in desire for having a 2nd child? Women (& men) 22-45: what differentials in transition to second birth? Women (& men) 22-42 with 2 children: what differentials in desire for having a 3rd child? Women (& men) 22-45: what differentials in transition to third birth?

4. Statistical analyses For desires: binary logistic regressions for wanting at least one (more) child For realisation of parity progression: Cox analysis (survival) Variables GenderEducationReligionResidence‘Ethnicity’ FemaleLow educationCatholicMain citiesSwiss-German MaleSecondaryProtestantOther urbanSwiss-French TertiaryMuslimRuralSwiss-Italian No religionBorn in Germany Born in France Born in Italy Born in Spain Born in Portugal

5. The desire for (more) children is age dependent

6. Results…..

7. Low educationCatholicCity-denseSwiss-German SecondaryProtestantSuburbanSwiss-French TertiaryMuslimRural-sparseSwiss-Italian No religionBorn in Germany Born in France Born in Italy Born in Spain Born in Portugal EducationReligionResidence‘Ethnicity’ Low educationCatholicCity-denseSwiss-German SecondaryProtestantSuburbanSwiss-French TertiaryMuslimRural-sparseSwiss-Italian No religionBorn in Germany Born in France Born in Italy Born in Spain Born in Portugal Women Reference categories: Secondary education; Catholic; Suburban; Swiss-French If childless, wants at least 1 child Likelihood of having a 1 st child

8. Low educationCatholicCity-denseSwiss-German SecondaryProtestantSuburbanSwiss-French TertiaryMuslimRural-sparseSwiss-Italian No religionBorn in Germany Born in France Born in Italy Born in Spain Born in Portugal EducationReligionResidence‘Ethnicity’ Low educationCatholicCity-denseSwiss-German SecondaryProtestantSuburbanSwiss-French TertiaryMuslimRural-sparseSwiss-Italian No religionBorn in Germany Born in France Born in Italy Born in Spain Born in Portugal Women Reference categories: Secondary education; Catholic; Suburban; Swiss-French Has 1 child, wants at >=1 more child Likelihood of progressing to a 2 nd child

9. Low educationCatholicCity-denseSwiss-German SecondaryProtestantSuburbanSwiss-French TertiaryMuslimRural-sparseSwiss-Italian No religionBorn in Germany Born in France Born in Italy Born in Spain Born in Portugal EducationReligionResidence‘Ethnicity’ Low educationCatholicCity-denseSwiss-German SecondaryProtestantSuburbanSwiss-French TertiaryMuslimRural-sparseSwiss-Italian No religionBorn in Germany Born in France Born in Italy Born in Spain Born in Portugal Women Reference categories: Secondary education; Catholic; Suburban; Swiss-French Has 2 children, wants >=1 more Likelihood of progressing to a 3 rd child

10. …..also, similarly for men (not shown)  A wealth of information to be digested…

11. Other factors Number of siblings (family of origin) Work situation Partner characteristics (education, attitudes…..) Liberal-conservative outlook Health Family / partnership harmony / rupture Childcare availability (family, external) Financial situation Social network (behaviour, opinions…) Locality Problems of sample size….

12. Comparison of EFG and other surveys EFG: Quite large sample size (>17,000); many questions; cross-sectional; similar but not exactly the same as GGP Swiss Household Panel: longitudinal – annually since 1999, sample size variable, started with 5000 households, but 2 extra samples added. Questions vary over the years, though some repeated Swiss census 2000: fully comprehensive but few demographic variables and none on attitudes (good for checking representativity of survey samples)

13. Thank you! drmarionb@gmail.com