1. Migration: main challenge to post-crisis Belarus Kateryna Bornukova BEROC

2. Background and data A study by Danzer and Dietz (2009) refers to 2006 survey made in Belarus, reporting that migration incidence in that year was 5.6 percent Luchenok and Kolesnikova (2011) contains a rough estimate of 150,000 people annually migrating from Belarus on temporary basis. The gap between the working-age and employed population in 2010 exceeded 1.4 million people. According to the estimates of Belstat, about 476.3 thousand people can be actual or potential labor migrants

3. New push and pull factors in 2011 Push factors: – Currency crisis in 2011, almost three-fold devaluation of Belarusian ruble, 108% inflation, decline in real incomes – Cut in subsidized loans for construction Pull factors: – labor market deregulation for migrants from Belarus in Russia – Special regimes in Poland and Lithuania

4. Average Salaries, 2009-2011 in U.S. dollars

5. Salaries decreased dramatically in 2011 The difference in salaries of the countries of Common Economic Space – In the end of 2011 the average salary in Belarus was 34.6% of the average salary in Russia – 53.2% of the average salary in Kazakhstan Salaries of educated decreased more (many of them work in the budget sector) “To stop migration from Belarus, salaries should be at least 80% of the Russian level” – minister of Economy Snopkov

6. Some indirect evidence Regions are expressing concern about the lack of doctors and teachers 18.7% of firms name the lack of qualified labor force as a main obstacle for growth in the first quarter of 2012 (National Bank Survey) Labor force declined by 100 thousand persons in 2012q1 versus 2011q1. Losses in construction and education

7. Summary In 2011-2012 migration became a real threat to the Belarusian economy It can become especially severe given that educated and experienced people are leaving Proper measurement of migration flows and measures to prevent brain drain are urgently needed