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Real Time Nowcasting In The Western Us OR Why you can’t use nodes C0-2 George Thomas Andy Wood Dennis Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

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Presentation on theme: "Real Time Nowcasting In The Western Us OR Why you can’t use nodes C0-2 George Thomas Andy Wood Dennis Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental."— Presentation transcript:

1 Real Time Nowcasting In The Western Us OR Why you can’t use nodes C0-2 George Thomas Andy Wood Dennis Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering LAND SURFACE HYDROLOGY RESEARCH GROUP Group Seminar July 5, 2006

2 Outline  Objective  background  surface water monitor  westwide forecast system  challenges  index station method for real-time forcing generation  implementation details  progress / results to date  future plans

3 Objective  Monitor the hydrologic state of the US land surface  Initially, western US; soon, mexico + remainder of US  1/8 degree  Daily updates in real-time (lag of 12-36 hrs)  Soil moisture, snow, runoff  Fully automated  Consistent with retrospective: back to at least 1950  Can be used for hazard assessment  Drought  Flood risk  Can be used to initialize hydrologic forecasts  Short lead, 1-15 day  Long lead, 1-12 month

4 Background  This nowcast draws upon procedures and data from two existing systems assembled by Dr. Wood  UW Experimental Surface Water Monitor (1/2 degree)  Methods for real-time forcing generation & model updating  UW West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting System  VIC model data at 1/8 degree  Eventually, forecast methods The nowcast will eventually be an integral part of the West- wide forecasting system

5 SW Monitor Background  An outgrowth of the west-wide forecasting system that adds a national scale perspective on land surface moisture  directly relevant to retrospective drought reconstruction work going on in our group  Andreadis et al. (2005) paper on drought  ½ degree VIC input parameters  enabled by recent NCDC extension of digital data archives back to 1915  will be used as platform for drought and hydrologic analyses in real-time  nowcasts are used now by US Drought Monitor & US Drought Outlook authors (at CPC and elsewhere)  many products possible, such as following one:

6 Drought Severity and Spatial Extent

7 Monitor Webpage daily updates 1-2 day lag soil moisture & SWE percentiles ½ degree resolution archive from 1915-current uses ~2130 index stns

8 Background: UW SW Monitor trends: 1 week 2 week 1 month Archive!

9 Background: UW SW Monitor Archive from 1915-current current conditions are a product of the same simulation (same methods, ~same stations) as historical conditions allows comparison of current conditions with historical ones can navigate by month or year People: Andy, Ali, Kaiyuan, Dennis

10 Background: UW SW Monitor

11 Background: West-wide Forecasting System Soil Moisture Initial Condition Snowpack Initial Condition

12 Background: West-wide Forecasting System NEW: West-wide overview of flow forecasts (mouse-over/clickable for more details)

13 As previously, flow location maps give access to monthly hydrograph plots, and also to data. Background: West-wide Forecasting System Now clicking the stream flow forecast map also accesses current basin- averaged conditions

14 An earlier G. Thomas contribution: Automating plots of west-wide SWE data Background West-wide Forecasting System Daily Updating West-at-a-glance SWE from NRCS, EC, CADWR Analyses:  Current Anomalies  Percentiles:  Current  1-week change  2-week change

15 Background: Central Challenge  Model simulations are calibrated and validated using a uniform or consistent set of forcing data  Nowcasts and forecasts use models calibrated and validated retrospectively  Problem: the station data used to create forcings are not as widely available in real-time as they are for the retrospective calibration/validation period  Solution: the “index-station method” # stations time 3 months before present present

16 VIC model spinup methods: index stations estimating spin-up period inputs dense station network for model calibration sparse station network in real-time

17 Outline  Objective  background  surface water monitor  westwide forecast system  challenges  index station method for real-time forcing generation  implementation details  progress / results to date  future plans

18 Index station method: example for precipitation  uses time-varying precipitation signal ONLY FROM stations that report reliably in real-time and for over 45 years (many go back longer)  precipitation percentiles calculated from raw precip for time period no shorter than 21 days.  percentiles interpolated to 1/8 degree grid  at 1/8 degree, percentiles used to extract corresponding observed value from 1/8 degree restrospective distribution (based on dense observing network, standard VIC forcing methods)  period 1/8 degree precip amount disaggregated using the fractional daily precipitation for that period (interpolated to 1/8 degree grid).  temperature is treated differently – daily interpolated anomalies for Tmin & Tmax are used

19 Index station method: example for precipitation Index stn pcp (mm) pcp percentile gridded to 1/8 degree 1/8 degree dense station monthly pcp DISTRIBUTION (N years for each 1/8 degree grid cell) (MM) 1/8 degree pcp (mm) disagg. to daily using interpolated daily fractions from index stations monthlydaily

20 Index station method: example for precipitation  In real-time, with daily updates, this method actively updates the forcings for a period from 3 weeks to 7 weeks. case 1: current day is less than day 21 of month treated as 1 period for percentile calculation months case 2: current day is greater than day 20 of month treated as 2 periods for percentile calculation the first month becomes fixed in forcing data months

21 Index station method  test of method for streamflow

22 Outline  Objective  background  surface water monitor  westwide forecast system  challenges  index station method for real-time forcing generation  implementation details  progress / results to date  future plans

23 Nowcast Information Flow VIC Retrospective Simulation Daily, 1915 to Near Current VIC Real-time Simulation (~1 month long) Hydrologic State NOAA ACIS / Other Prcp Tmax Tmin Coop Stations Index Station Method Gridded Forcing Creation Hydrologic values, anom’s, %-iles w.r.t. retrospective PDF climatology (PDF) of hydrologic values w.r.t. defined period vals, anoms %-iles w.r.t. PDF 1955+ Hydrologic State (-1 Day) 1930s

24 Implementation Details Computing Environment: Flood Cluster 46 cores 9 AMD Opteron 2x dual core 2 Intel Xeon 2X single core 1 AMD Opteron 2x single core Rocks 4.0.0 / CentOS 4.0 Linux Nowcasting is implemented on nodes c0-2 and c0-6 Useful phrases: WTF?! (what the flood?!) RTFM!! (read the flood manual)

25 Implementation Details SW Monitor coding scheme download obs P, tx, tn update force VIC Station Index files climatology Forcings 2 mon Params Soil, etc. output

26 Implementation Details SW Monitor coding scheme – NCAST implementation download obs P, tx, tn update force VIC Station Index files climatology Forcings 2 mon Params Soil, etc. output obs P, tx, tn update force VIC output Forcings 2 mon Params Soil, etc. climatology Station Index files Node 0-2Node 0-6 Loop over basins ca, colo, gbas, riog Loop over basins pnw, mexn, mexs

27 Implementation Details Observation data: Real-time and retrospective stations. 3 Primary sources

28 Implementation Details Observation data: Real-time and retrospective stations. 3 Primary sources 1. ACIS for CONUS 2123 stations 1915-present

29 Implementation Details Observation data: Real-time and retrospective stations. 3 Primary sources 1. ACIS for CONUS 2123 stations 1915-present 2. Environment Canada 10 stations 1915-present

30 Implementation Details Observation data: Real-time and retrospective stations. 3 Primary sources 1. ACIS for CONUS 2123 stations 1915-present 2. Environment Canada 10 stations 1915-present

31 Implementation Details Observation data: Real-time and retrospective stations. 3 Primary sources 1. ACIS for CONUS 2123 stations 1915-present 2. Environment Canada 10 stations 1915-present 3. Mexico (retrospective) 739 stations 1925-2003

32 Implementation Details Observation data: Real-time and retrospective stations. 3 Primary sources 1. ACIS for CONUS 2123 stations 1915-present 2. Environment Canada 10 stations 1915-present 3. Mexico (retrospective) 739 stations 1925-2003 Real-Time: EDAS (Eta DAS) daily re-analysis

33 Outline  Objective  background  surface water monitor  westwide forecast system  challenges  index station method for real-time forcing generation  implementation details  progress / results to date  future plans

34 Results daily forecast of SM percentiles

35 Results daily forecast of SM percentiles – animations of recent forecasts

36 Results daily forecast of SM percentiles - comparison with SW Monitor

37 Results daily forecast of SM percentiles - comparison with CPC Drought Monitor

38 Results daily forecast of SM percentiles - 2 week change - comparison with SW Monitor

39 Results April 1 SWE Archive (1997 – 2006)

40 Outline  Objective  background  surface water monitor  westwide forecast system  challenges  index station method for real-time forcing generation  implementation details  progress / results to date  future plans

41 Future Work Ongoing and Future Work  data products  expansion (Arkansas, etc.)  routing  constraints using SWE

42 END Thank you!

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