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Northwest Power and Conservation Council Proposed Revisions to Council’s Fuel Price Forecasts Natural Gas Advisory Committee June 27, 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "Northwest Power and Conservation Council Proposed Revisions to Council’s Fuel Price Forecasts Natural Gas Advisory Committee June 27, 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Proposed Revisions to Council’s Fuel Price Forecasts Natural Gas Advisory Committee June 27, 2007

2 Northwest Power and Conservation Council 5 th Plan Natural Gas Price Compared to More Recent

3 Northwest Power and Conservation Council 5 th Plan Natural Gas and Proposed Revision

4 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Revised Natural Gas Price Forecast Compared to Others

5 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Natural Gas Price (2006$/MMBtu)

6 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Western Natural Gas Prices

7 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Natural Gas Prices to PNW

8 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Basis Differentials

9 Northwest Power and Conservation Council West-Side Delivery Cost Sumas Price6.72 Firm Capacity.64 Commodity.05 In-Kind Fuel1.74%.12 Firm Supply Premium 0 Delivered Price7.53

10 Northwest Power and Conservation Council East-Side Delivery Cost AECO Price6.62 Firm Capacity.52 Commodity.01 In-Kind Fuel2.8%.19 Firm Supply Premium 0 Delivered Price7.34

11 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Other Assumptions LCD delivery cost for large customer? Capacity release rates? What share of firm pipeline capacity cost might be recovered from release market? Incremental long-term capacity cost? Any firm gas supply premium? Share of firm supply for electricity generator?

12 Northwest Power and Conservation Council 5 th Plan Oil Price Range Compared to Recent Forecasts

13 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Proposed Revision of Oil Price Forecast

14 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Revised Oil Price Forecast Compared to Other Recent Forecasts

15 Northwest Power and Conservation Council World Oil Price (2006$/Barrel)

16 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Revised Coal Price Forecast Compared to AEO 2007

17 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Coal Price Forecast Range and Assumed Growth Rates

18 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Comparative Fuel Prices Industrial Sector

19 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Historical Comparative Prices

20 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Ratio of Real Crude Price Per Barrel to Wellhead NG Price Per MMBtu

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