1. Gray Whales as Sentinels of Alaskan Ecosystem Variability Sue E. Moore NOAA/AFSC @ APL-UW

2. Co-Investigators Kate Stafford (APL-UW) Kate Wynne (UAF – Kodiak) Jackie Grebmeier (UT) Dave Rugh (NOAA/AFSC/NMML) Wayne Perryman (NOAA/SWFSC/PRD) Jim Overland (NOAA/PMEL)

3. Gray Whale Basics Only member of Eschrichtiidae Feeding generalists Two populations in North Pacific: ENP & WNP ENP pop. ~ 18K whales *de-listed in late 1992 **1999-2000 mortalities, post 1997-98 El Nino

4. Ecosystem Sentinels? ‘Weight of Evidence’ One-week delay in southbound migration timing, coincident with NPAC regime shift (Rugh et al. 2001) Calving rates positively correlated with ice-free Chirikov Basin (Perryman et al. 2002) Absence of feeding GW in Chirikov Basin, coincident with decline in benthic infauna (Moore et al. 2003) Feeding whales year-round near Kodiak (Moore et al.*) Calls detected year-round near Barrow (Stafford et al.*)

5. ENP Gray Whale Range

6. Rugh’s Observations Shift in migration timing - PDO Census @ Granite Canyon since 1967 Median Southbound dates: 8 JAN pre-1980 15 JAN post-1980 1-week shift, co-incident with increase in calf sightings North of Mexico (Shelden et al. 2004)[PDO = N. Mantua]

7. Perryman’s Observations -sea ice = +recruitment

8. Absence of Feeding GW in the Chirikov Basin…

9. Co-incident with Decline in Infaunal Benthic Prey J. Grebmeier’s Benthic Time Series

10. So, if not the Chirikov Basin, where are Gray Whales Feeding? 10s to 100s of whales seen feeding year-round offshore Kodiak Island K. Wynne’s surveys ‘many’ west of the IDL in Southern Chukchi Sea 10s to 100s reported NE Barrow by whalers 10s of whales feeding near Sitka J. Straley obs.

11. ‘Kodiak’ Gray Whales, 1999-2004 100s of whales in 2000 & 2001

12. Feeding on dense swarms of cumaceans Benthic sampling from small boat, 15-20 August 2002 Jackie Clement Extremely high cumacean densities @ 4 stations: 48,000-86,000/m 2 Amphipods nearly absent

13. Meanwhile, Recorders Near Barrow ARPs deployed OCT03-SEP04,via NSF-SBI cruises Part of broader AK array; BioScience, January 2006 With thanks to: L. Munger (SIO) R. Pickart (WHOI)

14. Detect Gray Whale Calls throughout winter `04 [until May]

15. AVHRR sea ice image: 25 January 2004 ‘breathing room’ [image: Hajo Eiken]

16. Sea Ice and Productivity: Conceptual models

17. K. Wynne’s - ‘So What?’ Gray whales are not behaving “like they used to”; is it just population growth/recovery? Gray whales track prey shifts and thereby provide insight to local ecology. [Duffus Lab] Population & environmental time series supports modeling approach. [J. Brandon] Species should be considered NPAC/Arctic Ecosystem Sentinel – under development by NOAA Ecosystem Goal Team [S. Swartz]

18. Ultimate Goals Inclusion of gray whales (& other large whales) in Ecosystem Models. Capability to interpret Ecosystem Variability via population and health assessment of large whales. Improved prediction/response to mortality events.

19. THANKS for Support NOAA/AFSC/NMML: GW census, aerial surveys, Kodiak prey assessment & ARPs (via Scripps) NOAA/SWFSC: calf census, aerial surveys, sea ice analyses NOAA/PMEL: conceptual model & web support UAF/GAP Program: Kodiak logistic support NSF/Shelf-Basin-Interaction Program: logistic support for Beaufort recorders