1. Lab #3 Flooding Scenario Analysis Assigned: Feb. 15 Due: Mar. 8 Points: 30

2. Capstone Statement Flooding of the Mississippi River in 1993 has worried an insurance company. They are concerned with that if there is a serious flooding in the Toronto area where a majority of their property policy holder are resident they will face serious financial burdens in covering existing claims. The insurance company wants to know how they will be affected by a variety of flooding scenarios in the Toronto region and where the prospective areas are for future penetration.

3. How the insurance company will be affected and where the prospective areas are Conceptualization Question:

4. How the insurance company will be affected and where the prospective areas are Areas with serious burdensAreas with good potential Conceptualization Question: Components:

5. How the insurance company will be affected and where the prospective areas are Areas with serious burdensAreas with good potential Prospective Conceptualization Question: Key Concepts: Components: Serious burdens

6. How the insurance company will be affected and where the prospective areas are Areas with serious burdensAreas with good potential Customers flooded >2% Conceptualization Question: Key Concepts: Components: Definitions: Prospective Serious burdens

7. 1) Not flooded 2) >10% families with 3 or more kids 3) Owned dwelling>50% … Conceptualization Question: Key Concepts: Components: Definitions: How the insurance company will be affected and where the prospective areas are Areas with serious burdensAreas with good potential Prospective Serious burdens Customers flooded >2%

8. Customers dist. Flooding ext. Conceptualization Demographics Question: Key Concepts: Components: Definitions: Variables: 1) Not flooded 2) >10% families with 3 or more kids 3) Owned dwelling>50% … How the insurance company will be affected and where the prospective areas are Areas with serious burdensAreas with good potential Prospective Serious burdens Customers flooded >2%

9. Customers dist. Flooding ext. Conceptualization Demographics Question: Key Concepts: Components: Definitions: Variables: 1) Not flooded 2) >10% families with 3 or more kids 3) Owned dwelling>50% … How the insurance company will be affected and where the prospective areas are Areas with serious burdensAreas with good potential Prospective Serious burdens Customers flooded >2% River networks

10. Customers dist. Flooding ext. Conceptualization Demographics Question: Key Concepts: Components: Definitions: Variables: 1) Not flooded 2) >10% families with 3 or more kids 3) Owned dwelling>50% … How the insurance company will be affected and where the prospective areas are Areas with serious burdensAreas with good potential Prospective Serious burdens Customers flooded >2% River networks Census Bureau Primary data layers: Customer.tab Rivers.tabPopdata.tab Insurance comp. Topo. Maps

11. Flood Scenario Analysis Under different flood scenario –Where are the areas (EAs) facing serious financial burdens –Where are the areas (EAs) for future penetration

12. Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens Define flood areas using buffer

13. Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens

14. Find Customers within Flooded Areas Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens

15. Find Customers within Flooded Areas Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens

16. Areas (EAs) with serious burdens: customers flooded > 2% Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens

17. Criteria: EAs that has customers affected > 2% Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens

18. Criteria: EAs that has customers affected > 2% Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens

19. Criteria: EAs that has customers affected > 2% Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens

20. Criteria: EAs that has customers affected > 2% Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens

21. Criteria: EAs that has customers affected > 2% Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens

22. Criteria: EAs that has customers affected > 2% Looking for Areas (EAs) with Serious Burdens

23. List EAs for Future Penetration Criteria: a) is not affected by flooding b) has a percentage of families with 3 or more children > 10% c) has a percentage of owned dwellings > 50% d) has a percentage of English mother tongue population > 50% e) has an estimated house hold income average in 1990 > 60,000 dollars.

24. List EAs for Future Penetration b) c) d) e)

25. List EAs for Future Penetration Select EAs which satisfies b), c), d), e)

26. List EAs for Future Penetration Select EAs which satisfies a) in addition to b), c), d), e) –Select EAs that are within flood buffer and satisfy b), c), d), e) –Delete the selected EAs

27. List EAs for Future Penetration Select EAs which satisfies a) in addition to b), c), d), e) –Select EAs that are within flood buffer and satisfy b), c), d), e) –Delete the selected EAs –Pack the data

28. List EAs for Future Penetration

29. What to turn in Flooding scenarios analysis –a flood affecting the areas within 0.75 km from all of the rivers –another flood affecting the areas within 0.5 km from the minor rivers and 1 km from the major rivers (the Don River) For each scenario: –A map showing the affected customers –The percentage of the customers who are affected by the flooding in the general Toronto area (total affected customer / total customer) –A map showing the EAs where the company may face serious financial burdens (percentage of customers affected > 2). In other words, these are the areas to avoid providing coverage or to increase the premium in the future –A map showing the EAs which are considered to be prospective (not affected by flooding, families with 3 or more children > 10%, owned dwellings > 50%, population with English mother tongue > 50%, and estimated income house hold average in 1990 > 60,000 dollars).

30. Map showing the affected customers

31. Map Showing EAs with Serious Burdens

32. Map Showing EAs for Future Penetration

33. What to turn in (cont.) Question 1: –Outline and discuss the problems associated with the use of buffering as a way to define the flooding extent. Question 2 –Discuss the usefulness of the four indices (PerChild, PerOwn, PerEng, E90hhaggin) for defining areas for future penetration. Are these four indices enough for predicting areas for future penetration? Why? Question 3 –Discuss the impact of the spatial accuracy in the three primary data layers (customer, rivers, demographics) on the results