1. California Energy Commission Light Duty Personal and Commercial Vehicle Stock Joint Lead Commissioner Workshop on Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts June 24, 2015 Jesse Gage Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division 1

2. California Energy Commission “How many vehicles do I need?” Economic and Demographic Data “What kind of vehicle do I need?” Econ/Demo, Vehicle Attributes “What fuel should my vehicles use?” Attributes, Fuel Prices 2 Choosing A Vehicle: The Three Questions

3. California Energy Commission “How many vehicles do I need?” Economic and Demographic Data “What kind of vehicle do I need?” Econ/Demo, Vehicle Attributes “What fuel should my vehicles use?” Attributes, Fuel Prices 3 Choosing A Vehicle: The Three Questions

4. California Energy Commission 4

5. 5

6. 6

7. “How many vehicles do I need?” Economic and Demographic Data “What kind of vehicle do I need?” Econ/Demo, Vehicle Attributes “What fuel should my vehicles use?” Attributes, Fuel Prices 7 Choosing A Vehicle: The Three Questions

8. California Energy Commission 8

9. “How many vehicles do I need?” Economic and Demographic Data “What kind of vehicle do I need?” Econ/Demo, Vehicle Attributes “What fuel should my vehicles use?” Attributes, Fuel Prices 9 Choosing A Vehicle: The Three Questions

10. California Energy Commission 10

11. California Energy Commission 11

12. California Energy Commission 12

13. California Energy Commission 13

14. California Energy Commission 14

15. California Energy Commission 15

16. California Energy Commission 16

17. California Energy Commission 17

18. California Energy Commission What’s in Store for the Revised Forecast? Revised Income/GSP Cases Updated vehicle attributes Updated fuel prices 18

19. California Energy Commission Questions? Comments? Jesse Gage Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division jesse.gage@energy.ca.gov / 916-654-6659 19

20. California Energy Commission High-Speed Rail Preliminary Transportation Energy Demand Forecast Rosenfeld Hearing Room June 24, 2015 Jesse Gage Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division jesse.gage@energy.ca.gov / 916-654-6659 20

21. California Energy Commission Original High-Speed Rail Allocation Algorithm 21

22. California Energy Commission 22 Source: California High Speed Rail Authority, 2015.