1. Effects of Highway Capacity Increases on Urban Development Patterns Land Use and Growth Impacts from Highway Capacity IncreasesLand Use and Growth Impacts from Highway Capacity Increases Paper by: Sanchez, T.W. 2004. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 130(2): 75-82. Paper by: Sanchez, T.W. 2004. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 130(2): 75-82. Presented by: Ross Connolly, Geography/Spanish Major, GEOG 370, 2.26.08 Presented by: Ross Connolly, Geography/Spanish Major, GEOG 370, 2.26.08

2. Spatial Problem: Role of highway development in land use and growth issues Problem: Connections may exist between the construction of highways and the changing characteristics of land use and growth. While other studies have attempted to explore these trends in the past, until recently, necessary land use data was not readily available.Problem: Connections may exist between the construction of highways and the changing characteristics of land use and growth. While other studies have attempted to explore these trends in the past, until recently, necessary land use data was not readily available. Hypothesis: Capacity-increasing highway construction can explain the characteristics of growth and development in surrounding areas.Hypothesis: Capacity-increasing highway construction can explain the characteristics of growth and development in surrounding areas.

3. Methods, data & test: Relating highway development to land use and growth characteristics Site: Oregon, 15 cities from 1970-1990Site: Oregon, 15 cities from 1970-1990 The data used in this study included historical aerial photography, spatial data, and population data.The data used in this study included historical aerial photography, spatial data, and population data. A geographic information system was used to combine the data – Grid cell based analysisA geographic information system was used to combine the data – Grid cell based analysis A logit regression model was used to analyze the effects of proximity to capacity increasing highway construction and development.A logit regression model was used to analyze the effects of proximity to capacity increasing highway construction and development. –The model was also used to predict the probability of development for a specific location based on proximity to highways. –Variables tested include proximity to highway projects, land- use zoning classification, city size, population, and others.

4. Results Development and land use conversion rates were higher near capacity increasing highway projects and near city limits (closer to urban core).Development and land use conversion rates were higher near capacity increasing highway projects and near city limits (closer to urban core). Logit regression model successfully predicted 84% of the land use conversions.Logit regression model successfully predicted 84% of the land use conversions. The probability of urban development declined with increasing distance away from urban cores, highways, projects of highway capacity increase (Fig 2).The probability of urban development declined with increasing distance away from urban cores, highways, projects of highway capacity increase (Fig 2). Likelihood of total development increased with time.Likelihood of total development increased with time.

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6. Conclusions Proximity to highways caused increased development, especially in areas near the city limits.Proximity to highways caused increased development, especially in areas near the city limits. Highway capacity increasing projects are directly linked to immediate increased land development.Highway capacity increasing projects are directly linked to immediate increased land development. Capacity increasing projects are also linked to land use conversion, from undeveloped to urban (residential, commercial or industrial).Capacity increasing projects are also linked to land use conversion, from undeveloped to urban (residential, commercial or industrial). Development is more likely around highway capacity increasing projects than near highways without capacity increases.Development is more likely around highway capacity increasing projects than near highways without capacity increases. Criticisms:Criticisms: –Limited nature of data: Actual traffic volume data for highways was not present. –Lack of historical analysis of earlier land use patterns that may have implications in the areas studied.