1. Velingrad, 21-25 October, 2006 р. Dr. Volodymyr Shemaiev National Defense Academy of Ukraine Method of cognitive modeling of military and technical state policy scenario’s development (military state security aspect)

2. Tendencies and factors of modern military and political situation: potential threat of armed conflicts, local and regional armed conflicts; limited opportunities of armed forces usage; increasing of realization opportunities of national interests in the military sphere.

3. Ф(t) =  ( D(F,W, М), G(t), X(t), U(t)), where: D(F,W,М) – structure of the situation; G(t) – multitude of the objectives; X(t) – multitude of situation conditions; U(t) – multitude of management. where:U*(t)- rational multitude of management. Formal task set up

4. Analysis of modeling methods Type of prediction Task of prediction Methods and theories Disadvantages Searching prediction (direct task) Assessment and prediction situation factors statistic, expert, Fuzzy logic Difficult to take into account conditions of stochastic data, direct and reverse linkages between the situation’s factors Normative prediction (reverse task) Synthesis of decision variants & selection of rational decision Games theory, Method of hierarchies analysis (T.Saati) Impossible to use “network-like” graph

5. Peculiarities of modeling processes in social and economical systems Correlation & diversity of processes Dynamic of processes parameters Lack of quantitative data on researching processes Conclusion: tasks of modeling are poorly structured or are not structured at all

6. Method System Dynamics Simulation Modeling (J. Forestrer, US) J S =, де F = {F 1,…,F k } – multitude of the situation’s factors, – assessment points of the factors on [  1, 1]. The factors can be target, operation’s and system’s.

7. Structurization of knowledge about a situation Building a cognitive model of a situation Research the tendencies on a situation development and its management: Prediction of self-development of a situation; Synthesis of the scenario of development situation management. Selection and detalization of decisions about moving the situation from the current to the target one Basic steps of cognitive analysis and situation development management

8. Matrix of interrelations of situation factors Vector of changes managingl factors Vector of target factors points? Direct task – cognitive modeling Matrix of interrelation of situation factors Vector of the required points managing factors ? Vector of desired points of target factors U  W= G,  ={U 1, U 2, …, U k }, Where, U1, …, Uk – multitudes of points of managing factors. Reverse task – cognitive modeling X(t+1)=X(t)+P(t+1), де P(t+1)=P(t)  W. (  ) - max-product-composition.

9. Verification: Cognitive modeling of state military technical policy sample (unreal data) Modeling of military and technical policy was carried out following 3 scenarios: 1.Situation self-development. 2. Solving a reverse task with limits in management. 3.Modeling of real opportunities to achieve the objectives.

10. РЕST – analysis

11. Fragment of cognitive model of the situation (unreal data)

12. Scenario 1. Situation self-development Result: objectives are not achieved. Scenario 2. Solving a reverse task with limits in management (unlimited resources). Result: key-factors are: space technologies, information technologies, intelligence etc. Scenario 3. Modeling of real opportunities to achieve the objectives (limited resources). Result: resources are not available, joining the collective systems of security (NATO).

13. Contacts National Defense Academy of Ukraine 28, Povitroflotskiy prospect, Kyiv, Ukraine, Tel: +38-044-248-10-78 Dr. Volodymyr Shemaiev E-mail: shemaiev@email.ua Tel: + 38 050 9561617, +38 044 271 05 74 Thank you!