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Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 1 Executive Board meeting 26 April 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 1 Executive Board meeting 26 April 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 1 Executive Board meeting 26 April 2006

2 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 2 Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report 1/06 The Executive Board's assessment is that the sight deposit rate should be in the interval 2¼ - 3¼ per cent in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 29 June 2005, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections. The interest rate may gradually – in small, not too frequent steps – be brought back towards a more normal level. The objective of bringing inflation back to target and anchoring inflation expectations nevertheless implies that monetary policy remains expansionary.

3 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 3 Growth projections for 2006 and 2007 Projections for GDP growth published by the IMF in September 2005 and April 2006. Per cent Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2006

4 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 4 Developments on stock markets internationally 2 January 2002 = 100. 2 January 2002 – 24 April 2006 Source: EcoWin

5 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 5 Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January 2002 – 24 April 2006 24 April 2006 Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin 10 March IR 1/06

6 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 6 Oil futures prices USD per barrel light crude. 3 January 2004 – 24 April 2006 Delivery in 6 years Delivery in 1 month Sources: EcoWin/ NYMEX

7 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 7 Metal prices Index. Week 1, 2001 = 100 Copper Steel Nickel Aluminium Zinc USD Source: EcoWin

8 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 8 Core inflation 1) 12-month change. January 2002 – March 2006 US Japan Euro area UK Source: EcoWin\Eurostat 1) US: CPI excl. food and energy, Japan: CPI excl. fresh food Euro area, UK and Sweden: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Sweden

9 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 9 Actual and expected key rates 1) Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area 24 April 2006 15 March 2006 Sweden UK 1) Not adjusted for credit risk

10 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 10 Yields on 10-year government bonds 2 January 2004 – 25 April 2006 Germany US Japan Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank Norway

11 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 11 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2009 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank I-44, (right-hand scale) Weighted 3- month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 15 March 2006 24 April 2006 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. Average 3 - 25 April

12 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 12 Inflation 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 - March 2006 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Weighted median CPI-ATE 1) CPI 1) A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006.

13 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 13 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway Imported consumer goods CPI-ATE CPI-ATE 1) Total and by supplier sector 2). Actual inflation and projections from IR 1/06 12-month change. Per cent. January 2004 - May 2006 1) A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. 2) Norges Bank's calculations

14 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 14 Change in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages Excluding taxes. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2004 – March 2006 Source: Statistics Norway

15 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 15 Mainland GDP, excluding energy Percentage growth in volume on previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted Basis value. 2000 Q1 - 2005 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

16 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 16 Number of unemployed (LFS), registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes In thousands. Seasonally adjusted. January 1996 – March 2006 LFS unemployment Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

17 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 17 Expected earnings in listed companies Index. 01.01.2006 = 100 Sources: Reuters and EcoWin 20062007 Norway Japan Europe US Norway Japan Europe US

18 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 18 House prices (12-month change) and housing starts (number of 1000s in last 12-months). January 2001 – March 2006 Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms (EFF), ECON and Finn.no House prices Housing starts

19 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 19 Credit growth Total debt mainland Norway (C3). Domestic credit to households (C2) 12-month growth. Per cent Source: Norges Bank Households Total debt of mainland enterprises Total debt

20 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 20 Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario and market expectations regarding the sight deposit rate 1) Per cent. 2006 Q2 – 2009 Q4 1) Derived from estimated forward rates. The sight deposit rate has been reduced by a credit risk premium and technical difference of 0.20 percentage point. The grey shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest rates in the market's sight deposit rate scenario in the period 6 – 24 April. 06 Source: Norges Bank Baseline scenario Market expectations concerning the sight deposit rate Market 24 April 2006

21 Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) 21 Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario from Inflation Report 1/06 with fan chart Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2004 Q1– 2009 Q4 30%50%70%90% Source: Norges Bank


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