1. Current Oversights in Marine Reserve Design

2. MARINE RESERVE DATA BASE 81 studies, 102 measurements Halpern, in press

3. Population Size & Productivity Increase Dramatically within Reserves

4. Responses Within Reserves Substantial Increases in Density, Biomass, Size & Diversity Effects of Reserve Size? –Measure of change Effectiveness Index = log[reserve/control]

5. smallest:.002 km 2 largest: 846 km 2 DISTRIBUTION OF RESERVE SIZES

6. HYPOTHETICAL RESERVE EFFECT NO EFFECT OF SIZE EFFECT VARIES WITH SIZE

7. RESERVE EFFECT ON DENSITY p = 0.49

8. RESERVE EFFECT ON BIOMASS p = 0.25

9. RESERVE EFFECT ON AVERAGE SIZE p = 0.95

10. RESERVE EFFECT ON DIVERSITY p = 0.76

11. The Size of Single Marine Reserves: The Challenge of Competing Interests Conservation –Persistence of populations within reserve boundaries –Larval retention is beneficial Fishing –Enhancement of production beyond reserve boundaries –Larval export is beneficial

12. Conservation Perspective on a Single Reserve Critical Reserve Size scales with Dispersal Distance

13. What is the Mean Dispersal Distance? Range for planktonic periods from 0 to 100s of days Invasions speeds from meters to 100s of km per year Genetic estimates of average dispersal –> Shanks & Grantham, Palumbi, Kinlan & Gaines

14. Fisheries Perspectives on Single Marine Reserves

18. Larger reserves may eliminate fisheries benefits

19. Is There a Solution to that does not Force a Compromise? Networks of Many Reserves

20. What is the optimal network design? How do we Design an Effective Network? We need a much better understanding of larval dispersal

21. Range of Solutions for Channel Islands Rank 1 30% set aside Rank 4 Rank 5Rank 2 Rank 3

22. Variability Among Species

23. Variable Circulation over Space and Time

24. Empiricists may Solve the Problem Otoliths as Environmental Recorders - Elemental Signatures Dissolved trace elements Larval uptake Otolithincorporation

25. suitable habitat Adult distribution Larval settlement Adult mortality Linking oceanic/benthic dynamics Larval distribution Larval production by adults Larval mortality Advection Diffusion Exit into adult population

26. 1020304050 0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0 Fraction Dispersal distance, km Eddy diffusivity = 16 m 2 /s Mean velocity = 1.6 cm/s Classic advection- diffusion model Estimated via flow measurements Advection versus dispersion 3 week dispersal

27. Alongshore Converging Eddy circulation Simple flow fields

28. Key Findings from Model Critical role of the Peclet Number, v 2 T/K

29. Year 5 Extinct by year 26Extinct by year 12 Year 5, equilibrium 024489672024489672024489672 0 20 40 60 80 100 North to south distance along shoreline, km Percent cover of adults Year 0 10 15 Year 0 5 0.25 cm/s1 cm/s4 cm/s Year 0 Alongshore flow

30. 20 40 60 80 100 0 Mean percent cover of adults 100.5 Flow speed, cm/s Alongshore flow 40% yearly mortality 50% 60% Adult mortality rate and flow

31. Some possible reserve configurations Upstream reserveSystem of reservesDownstream reserve

32. Key Findings from Model Critical role of the Peclet Number, v 2 T/K Networks of small reserves can be much more effective than large single reserves

33. 15304575 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 Year Mean percent cover of adults 1 cm/s reversing flow Upstream or downstream reserve 3-way split reserve Efficacy under intense harvest pressure 99% harvest outside reserve 60

34. Key Findings from Model Critical role of the Peclet Number, v 2 T/K Networks of small reserves can be much more effective than large single reserves Management of Fisheries using reserves can be more effective than managing effort

35. 20406080100 806040200 1000 0 2000 3000 4000 6000 0 Yield/meter of habitat Percent of habitat in reserve Percent of adults collected by fishery Reserves versus quota control: Yield 1 cm/s 2 cm/s 0.5 cm/s 1 cm/s 2 cm/s 0.5 cm/s QuotaReserve system 5000

36. 20406080100 806040200 0 40 60 80 100 0 Mean percent cover of adults Percent of habitat in reserve Percent of adults collected by fishery Reserves versus quota control: Abundance 1 cm/s 2 cm/s 0.5 cm/s 1 cm/s 2 cm/s 0.5 cm/s QuotaReserve system

37. What is the optimal network design? How do we Design an Effective Network? We need a much better understanding of larval dispersal

38. Roughgarden, J., Gaines, S., and Possingham, H. 1988. Science 241:1460-1466 suitable habitat Adult distribution Larval settlement Adult mortality Larval distribution Larval production by adults Larval mortality Advection Diffusion Exit into adult population Modeling Populations with Dispersal by Currents

39. Biogeographic Representation Transition Oregonian Californian

40. UPWELLING SYNOPTIC STATE April-May 1993-1995, 1996-1999 Composite of all wind conditions Characterized by equatorward wind Weaker currents during El Nino events Impacts to species of interest: Kelpfish, Black and Yellow Rockfish

41. Random Solution

42. Connectivity in Reserve Networks Larval concentration, individuals/m2 Position alongshore, km Distance offshore, km

44. Year 5 Extinct by year 46 Year 5, equilibrium 024489672024489672024489672 0 20 40 60 80 100 North to south distance along shoreline, km Percent cover of adults Year 0 10 Year 0 5 0.25 cm/s1 cm/s4 cm/s Year 0 Eddy circulation 15 20 Equilibrium 10 15 20 25 Year 30 Flow-mediated range boundary

45. 024489672024489672024489672 0 20 40 60 80 100 North to south distance along shoreline, km Percent cover of adults Reserves with alongshore flow Downstream reserve3-way split reserveUpstream reserve Year 5 Year 0 15 20 25 30 10 15 20 25 10 15 25 10 Year 0 Year 5 Year 0 Year 5 20 1 cm/s

46. 10203040 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 Year Mean percent cover of adults 1 cm/s reversing flow Upstream reserve 3-way split No reserve Downstream Persistence in temporally variable flow