1. Technology Forecasting Edmund Prater, Ph.D. University of Texas-Arlington

2. Five key impacts on Technology Forecasting Technical Social Environmental Legal Political

3. Types of Forecasts Surveillance Projective Normative (Goal Oriented) Expert Opinion Integrative (Scenarios)

4. Surveillance READ EVERYTHING!!!!! The Economist Wired Historians Groups exist that do this professionally SRI DATACOM

5. Expert Opinion Seeking definition of the knowable future Single Expert Committee Surveys Groups Delphi Structured Interviews

6. Nominal Group Technique Outline of goals and methods by moderator Silent, independent generation of ideas Silent, written presentation of ideas Discussion of ideas Silent independent voting

7. Using Expert Opinion More Effectively Surveys-Traditional Sampling effective only if the general population knows the subject Groups-Focus, brainstorming, nominal group technique Delphi effective if it is a new technology known only by a few experts

8. Implications Wheel Potential topics (select one-well defined innovation, trend, decision Write a concise statement (hub) Areas of direct, immediate impact (1st ring) Impacts of direct impacts (2nd ring) Higher order impacts (3rd and 4th ring)

9. Trend Analysis Looking for the roots of change Precursor Developments Has this happened before? Trend Extrapolation What happens if this trend keeps going?

10. Projecting Increases in Performance Constant percentage rate of improvement Growth models and performance envelopes Precursor patterns and signals Production driven performance

11. Constant Percentage Rate of Improvement Most new technologies will fit this pattern Rates will be maintained if the improvement is technically possible demand, utility, need continue basic approach remains the same Subsidies may increase short-term rates Laws and regulations may decrease short- term rates

12. Growth Models and Performance Envelopes A frequently observed pattern for technologies which have natural limits ex. how many eggs can a chicken physically lay each day? therefore, what is the maximum possible egg production rate for a Tyson chicken farm?