Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byScot Randall Modified over 9 years ago
1
MPSIF Market Strategy Value Fund October 20, 2003
2
Objectives Market catalysts Sector recommendations
3
Bull Run YTD, Dow Jones Industrial Average ↑ 17% YTD, S&P 500 ↑ 18% YTD, S&P 500 ↑ 18% YTD, NASDAQ Composite ↑ 43% YTD, NASDAQ Composite ↑ 43% Earnings expectation 3Q03 : 18% ↑ over 3Q02 Earnings expectation 3Q03 : 18% ↑ over 3Q02 Earnings expectation 4Q03 : 22% ↑ over 4Q02 Earnings expectation 4Q03 : 22% ↑ over 4Q02
4
Interest Rates Fed Triggers : Core Inflation & Unemployment rate Fed Triggers : Core Inflation & Unemployment rate Core inflation (1.5%) at lowest level in 40 years Core inflation (1.5%) at lowest level in 40 years GDP growth (6% 3Q03, 3.3% 4Q03) > Productivity growth (3.5%) = Improvement in labor market GDP growth (6% 3Q03, 3.3% 4Q03) > Productivity growth (3.5%) = Improvement in labor market Sept.03 non-farm payrolls up by 57,000 Sept.03 non-farm payrolls up by 57,000 Fed funds futures price in 25 bp increase only in 2H04 Fed funds futures price in 25 bp increase only in 2H04
5
Growth Business investments Business investments ISM Survey ISM Survey Consumer Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, Fading fiscal stimulus Confidence, Retail Sales, Fading fiscal stimulus
6
Earnings Dollar Dollar ST & LT direction ST & LT direction Consumer product, raw material producers Consumer product, raw material producers Other – Corporate default spread, pricing power Other – Corporate default spread, pricing power Upward earnings revisions > downward earnings revisions in 3Q03 Upward earnings revisions > downward earnings revisions in 3Q03 Guidance for 4Q03 more downbeat than expected Guidance for 4Q03 more downbeat than expected
7
Recommendations Upward revisions : Consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, telecom services Upward revisions : Consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, telecom services Downward revisions : Consumer staples, health care, IT, utilities Downward revisions : Consumer staples, health care, IT, utilities
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.