1. Nick Bailey University of Glasgow Employment, poverty and social exclusion

3. Labour market & policy context Long-term restructuring – More unequal returns, increasing ‘flexibility’ – Recession reinforced this – rise of underemployment and SE Policy – Minimum wage and tax credits BUT – Welfare reforms, sanctions AND – Absence of labour market regulation and curbs on unions Drives rise of in-work poverty (UK figs from HBAI) – 52% of poor in work in 2011/12 [40% in 1996/7] – 61% of working age poor in work in 2011/12 [53% in 1996/7]

4. 52% of all people in poverty in working hhlds - 61% of working age in poverty Low income poverty (AHC) by household employment status UK - 1996/7 to 2011/12 HBAI (DWP, 2013).

5. 1. Access to employment

7. 2. Employment and poverty Low income x 2 60% of median, BHC and AHC Deprivation x 2 Adult (3+ from 22) and child (2+ from 22) PSE poverty Deprived (3+) AND low income (below median) Subjective poverty x 2 Perceived poor; income below poverty level

8. 2. Employment and poverty - UK 17%32% 12%

9. 2. In-work poverty – Scot vs RoUK -2%-5%

10. 2. Poverty by hhld work intensity – Scot vs RoUK

11. 2. Employment and poverty Poverty risks by employment history

12. 2. Employment and poverty Factors raising risks of in-work poverty – Hhld with children or single personx 2 – Semi-/routine and lower supervisory occupations x 2.5 – Work intensity less than 0.4 x 2.5 – 12+ months unemp. in last five yearsx 3 BUT for large minority of people, problem is NOT lack of access to employment – 46% of working age adults who are poor are in work [Scot = 45%] – 39% of working poor work 40+ hours a week [Scot = 31%] – 35% of working poor in hhlds with Work Intensity > 0.8 [Scot = 41%]

13. 3. Employment, Health & Well-being Impacts of employment on health & WB – Status, identity, routine, structure – Material or economic resources – Quality of work Physical demands, hazards Psychosocial environment Two-way relationships

14. 3. Employment, Health & Well-being Employment quality – sum of five scores (12 vars) – Satisfaction/sense of value (satisfaction, interesting, useful) – Low stress (NOT stressful, NOT tight deadlines) – Control/flexibility (task control, control start/finish, time-off) – Good physical conditions (temperature, smoke/dust/noise, NOT physically demanding) – Security (job secure)

15. 3. Employment, Health & Well-being

16. People in lowest quintile for job quality have health/well- being no better than unemployed – After controlling for gender, age, physical health, income, deprivation, occupation, education Not evidence of causal link but consistent with other work which shows such a link Poor quality work, like low paid work, does not lead to social inclusion Scotland has similar proportion of jobs of “low quality” – 21% c.w. 23% for RoUK [+/- 4% and 2% respectively]

17. Inactive Unemployed Employed/ Self-empd Summary: Employment & social exclusion

18. Inactive Unemployed Employed/ Self-empd 8% 22% % WA Not working29% Summary: Employment & social exclusion

19. Inactive Unemployed Employed/ Self-empd Poor (17%) Poor (59%) Poor (48%) 8% 22% % empd% WA Work+poor17%12% Not working29% Summary: Employment & social exclusion

20. Inactive Unemployed Employed/ Self-empd Poor Poor quality Poor 8% 22% % empd% WA Work+poor17%12% Work+poor qual22%16% Not working29% Summary: Employment & social exclusion

21. Inactive Unemployed Employed/ Self-empd Poor Poor quality Poor history Poor 8% 22% % empd% WA Work+poor17%12% Work+poor qual22%16% Work+poor hstry6%4% Not working29% Summary: Employment & social exclusion

22. Inactive Unemployed Employed/ Self-empd Poor Poor quality Poor history Poor 8% 22% % empd% WA Work+poor17%12% Work+poor qual22%16% Work+poor hstry6%4% Exclusionary emplt Any 136%26% 2+8%5% Not working29% Summary: Employment & social exclusion Scotland 32% 7%

23. Inactive Unemployed Employed/ Self-empd Poor Poor quality Poor history Poor 8% 22% % empd% WA Work+poor17%12% Work+poor qual22%16% Work+poor hstry6%4% Exclusionary emplt Any 136%26% 2+8%5% Not working29% Summary: Employment & social exclusion

24. Inactive Unemployed Employed/ Self-empd Poor Poor quality Poor history Poor 8% 22% % empd% WA Work+poor17%12% Work+poor qual22%16% Work+poor hstry6%4% Exclusionary emplt Any 136%26% 2+8%5% ONE THIRD of those in exclusionary employment have made no progress in employment over last five years Summary: Employment & social exclusion

25. 4. Conclusions: Britain’s broken labour market Need policy focus on “inclusionary employment” – Access to work – employment rates – Pay – Living Wage+, hours, underemployment – Stability/security – predictability, continuity – Quality – satisfaction, control, stress, physical – Progression