1. DynaRICE Modeling to Assess the Effect of the 1984 Ice Jam on Possible Bed Changes in the St. Clair River Tomasz Kolerski and Hung Tao Shen

2. St. Clair River is not an ordinary, (“normal”), river Water level cannot exceed the level of Lake Michigan-Huron Beltaos (2009)

3. Decline in Head Difference between Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie The head difference, or lake-to-lake fall, between Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie declined by about 62 cm between 1860 and 2006; St. Clair River’s conveyance changed rapidly in the mid-1980s,

4. Conveyance of St. Clair River Monthly Conveyance from Dunn Paper to Mouth of Black River Daly(2009)

5. Conveyance of St. Clair River Monthly Conveyance from Mouth of Black River to Dry Dock Daly(2009)

6. Conveyance of St. Clair River Monthly Conveyance from Dry Dock to St. Clair State Police Daly(2009)

7. Conveyance of St. Clair River Monthly Conveyance from St. Clair State Police to Algonac Daly(2009)

8. 1984 Ice Jam One of possible cause of the decline in the head difference between Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie since 1962 is a major ice jam on the St. Clair River in April 1984 Available evidence is not sufficient to justify a conclusion that the 1984 jam was indeed the cause of the change

9. 1984 Ice Jam Duration of 24 days Produced major impact on navigation (estimated losses $1.7M a day) Lake St. Clair water levels dropped about 0.6 m Flow reduced by approx. 65% Water velocity reduced by about 50%

17. St. Clair River Gauges Station Name Latitude [m] Longitude [m] St. Clair Shores 4122308.4109196.0 Algonac 4150907.4126147.9 Port Lambton 4152453.6130440.9 St. Clair State Police 4153803.5147507.0 Dry Dock 4156918.7162330.1 Mouth of the Black River 4158681.6165518.7 Point Edward 4158603.5167430.5 Dunn Paper 4158514.8168817.4 Fort Gratiot 4158484.3169156.2

18. Model Calibration

19. Bed Manning's Coefficients

20. St. Clair River Gauges HEC-RAS RMA2DynaRICE 1971- bathymetry 2001- bathymetry Ft. Gratiot -Dunn Paper0.0190.03410.0370370.028 Dunn Paper - Pt. Edward0.03890.0360.0370370.020 Pt. Edward - Mouth of Black River0.0050.02130.0370370.019 Mouth of Black River - Dry Dock0.02440.0240.0370370.020 Dry Dock - St. Clair S.P. 0.02350.02630.0219360.021 0.02590.02950.0286630.021 St. Clair S.P. - Pt. Lambton 0.02230.02470.0286630.0215 0.02290.02520.0286630.0215 0.02410.02650.0225390.0215 Pt. Lambton - Algonac0.02690.02410.0225390.023 Algonac - St. Clair Shores0.02690.02410.0225390.024

21. 1984 Ice Jam Water Level Data

22. Ice Discharge

23. Ice Formation in St. Clair Flats

27. Ice Formation in St. Clair River

29. Ice Jam Formation

30. Ice Formation Animation

31. Bed Shear Stress c f = friction coefficient; ρ = water density; q x,y = components of unit width water discharge; H' = water depth beneath the ice layer.  b = fraction of the total water flow depth affected by the bed friction); n b = bed Manning's coefficient; g = gravitational acceleration.

32. Bed Shear Stress

34. Ice Jam Release

35. Water Level Data

36. Ice Jam Release

39. Animation

42. Conclusions The results from DynaRICE simulations indicated that the ice jam in the river did not cause a significant increase in bed shear stress compared to pre- and post-jam open water conditions This is reasonable since the backwater effect of the jam was not significant as it is constrained by the limited level difference between Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair and the large depth of river flow relative to the jam thickness One possible indirect contribution of ice jams to the conveyance increase is the excess water stored in Lake Huron during a jam (Derecki and Quinn 1986). This increase in water storage increases the lake water level to produce larger discharge into the St. Clair River, which may have caused a gradual increase in conveyance

43. Thanks!