1. Tropical Report: Modeling Hurricane Ike with SLOSH Don Slinn, Jeff Ren, Go Fujita Univ of Florida Coastal Engineering

6. Simulations 1.Basic Slosh wind model no waves 2.Slosh winds + Garratt wind drag law 3.Slosh winds + wave forces 4.Slosh winds + wave forces + wave mass fluxes 5.OWI winds + Garratt wind drag law 6.OWI winds + wave forces 7.OWI winds + wave forces + wave mass fluxes 8.Slosh basic on Larger Basin 9.Slosh basic with lower bottom friction

7. Cd = 0.003

8. Cd=(0.75+0.067U) Cap at 0.003 Stress=rho*Cd*U*(u,v)

10. Wave Mass Flux Depth Averaged Currents (Stokes Drift) Caused by Wave Crests higher than troughs (Starr, 1947)

11. Inclusion of Wave Forcing in SLOSH 1.Wave stresses 2.Mass flux transport INTRODUCTION ▪▪▪ METHODOLOGY ▪▪▪ RESULTS ▪▪▪ CONCLUSIONS

13. Wave Calibration plots 42035

18. Case 3 – Case 1 Case 4 – Case 1

26. OWI Wind Wave +MF

28. Map of Data Locations

32. Sabine Pass Grid

35. MEOW of Low Bottom Friction Cf = 0.003

36. Cf=0.003, same color scale as original

40. ETSS background Resolution varies – Gulf of Mexico ~ 4km – East Coast ~ 9.4km – Alaska ~ 6.7km – West Coast ~ 6.5km Each run has a 2 day initialization and a 4 day forecast period, for a total of 6 days Results posted to the web – http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ (text & hydrographs) http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ – http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/ST. expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ (gridded data) http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/ST. expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ – http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_ GOM_EAST/SURGE_GOM_EAST_96_HR.shtml (gridded) http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_ GOM_EAST/SURGE_GOM_EAST_96_HR.shtml

41. ETSS results for 3/4/2011 MDL’s website displaying total water level station status map, based on ETSS output OPC’s website displaying gridded ETSS results

42. Forecast Total Water Level for Hurricane Ike, Based on ETSS

43. OPC’s website displaying gridded ETSS results for 3/4/11 Station total water level plot showing forecast for Ike storm surge event at Galveston, TX

44. Summary Surge Low – 2 day simulation doesn’t catch forerunner – Small domain cant catch basin effects – Changing bottom friction increases surge by 1 m – Larger domain solution (not yet assessed) – Waves add 1 m in some locations – More data comparisons coming soon

45. Summary Slosh model implemented for Ike with: OWI Winds and / or Garratt Wind Drag Coupled with Waves Adjustments to Bottom Friction Several details in development – Wind Stress reduction – Automatic Plotting Algorithms – Post processing and Data Comparison

46. Additional Work Hurricane Rita (other storms easier for Slosh to give good estimates: Andrew, Charlie…) Comparison to High water marks and measurements Time series: cross shore locations Wind stress reduction over land Bottom Friction adjustments – (not quadratic law)