1. MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 WP 06 MONITORING & FORECASTING CENTRE for ARCTIC Laurent Bertino, NERSC MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – Cork /16-17 April 2013

2. MyOcean Close out / MyOcean 2 Kick Off – 27-29 March 2012 WP 6 Arctic MFC (Operations and Service lead) (Science and Technology lead) Operations Service Tier 1 R&D Implementation & Transitioning NERSC MET.NO NERSC MET.NO NERSC IMR NIERSC MERCATOR MET.NO NERSC MET.NO IMR Partnership

3. Work Package Main Objectives (copy-paste from KO) MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 n (Tier 1) Scientific objectives are n Best usage of ensemble methods, hybrid model coordinates, biology n Assimilation: Online bias estimation, impact of sea ice mask in NWP n Ocean physics: Pull-through from HYCOM, MyWave n Sea ice physics: Pull through from WIFAR. n Biology: An IBM for Calanus F. and two fish larvæ n Collaborative: comparison to the Global system n Operational objectives are n Redundancy of the RT production n Optimize the production cycle wrt data availability n Adding quality checks on biology n Technical objectives are n Optimizing parallelism and I/O on new HPC n Evolution of the service elements (new variables, new standards)

4. Improvements, results, illustrations MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 n The NWP forecasts use a static ice edge. n Not consistent with the forecast ice edge n Impact on biases? n Sea ice: no n SST: well, no n MLD: not really

5. System Evolution MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 n Objectives were n (V3) Optimize the production cycle wrt data availability n (V3) Porting to new HPC n (V4) Redundancy n Main achievements are n Apr. 2012: Routine comparison to GLO and external systems n June 2012: Shifted analysis day (to assimilate data at D-3) n Oct. 2012: Porting to new HPC completed, (Vilje: SGI Altix ICE) n Delayed by 4 months but running smoothly since Nov. n Dec. 2012: NERSC DU transferred to met.no n Main difficulties encountered n Unstable HPC, IO problems, changes to output n Unforeseen upgrades caused some delays n Mask output data < 50N, remove surface fluxes

6. The EnKF weekly cycle Real time Lead time A: Weekly D-3 analysis (Thursdays) Yellow bars: Weekly 100 member ensemble 7 days hindcast (Mondays) Green bars: Daily single member 10 days forecast

7. Weekly comparisons: sea ice

8. Weekly comparisons: SST

9. Weekly comparisons: surf. SAL

10. Production Evolution MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 n Objectives were n (V3) New variables n (V3 + V4) Switching inputs (NWP, rivers, ice drift, T/S profiles, SLA) n (V3) QC check on BIO forecasts n (V3) Update BIO model parameters (Norwecom) n Main achievements are n Nov 2012: Switched to OSI TAC ice drift. n Nov 2012: New QC for biology n Nov. 2012: Updated parameters in Norwecom n Feb. 2013: Cleanup of scripts n Apr. 2013: New variable sea ice albedo n Main difficulties encountered n Difficult to compare total sea ice extent to OSI TAC observations n Air-ice drag needed to be re-tuned (done in WP19).

11. New QC check on BIO forecasts MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

12. Ice extent monitoring MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

13. First period summary and next steps MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 n Success n Local desk routines well established (incident report etc.). n Routine comparison of ARC – GLO – TACs – External systems n Good links to WP17, OSI TAC n Good learning process from reanalysis to RT n Issues / Room for improvement n ENVISAT not fully replaced (SLA, ice drift, SST) n Slow adaptation to MyO2’s WP organization n Get users, and accounted (i.e. ECMWF) n Coming up next n Update to HR ECMWF forcing n Improve river fluxes (TRIP and/or HYPE). n Lagrangian zooplankton + fish larvæ model n Assimilate ARC data from IS-TAC and SL-TAC n Redundancy: backup at “Byvind” in Sweden. Cod larvæ (IMR)

14. Pull-through from external projects New sea ice model developments Significant Wave height (from WW3, Ifremer) Maximum floe size Deformations from the new Elastic-Brittle rheology (Kara Sea, Feb. 2011) Marginal Ice Zone / Ice Pack Aug. 2012 Projects co-funded by the RCN and TOTAL E&P Norge