1. Trends in network traffic Mike Norris 17 th May 2006

2. Agenda Dialectics Projections of future behaviour Network capacity Growth factors and restraints Actual measured traffic Other metrics Some conclusions

3. Syllogism 1.“When I hit Enter on my laptop, I want the solution to this very complex calculation to appear on my screen as a volumetric rendering, within a fraction of a second.” 2.“There isn’t enough bandwidth” 3.“So, we must redouble our efforts, light more dark fibre.”

4. Caveat “Fanaticism consists of redoubling your effort when you have forgotten your aim.” George Santayana

5. Counter-caveat “Almost every wise saying has an opposite one, no less wise, to balance it.” George Santayana

6. Some projections (Serenate 2003) Very demanding applications are coming Network requirements will grow dramatically over the next 5 – 10 years GÉANT long-term trend-line is 80 times increase in 5 years Tbps networking will be everywhere by the end of the decade

7. Projection (Serenate 2003)

8. Expected increase in core capacity, 2000 and 2005 (Terena Compendium) Increase factor NRENs 2LT, LU 10EE, FI, FR, HU, LV, NO, SK, SE, TR 100CZ, DE, ES Increase factor NRENs 1HU, LU 2BE, CH, DE, IL, NL 3CY 5CZ, DK, GR, HR, LT, NO, PT, SE, UK 10BU, ES, IE, IS, SI, SK

9. GÉANT and predecessors

10. Growth factors - intrinsic More client institutions More users More pervasive use More intensive applications Research users Research infrastructures New sectors (e.g. schools)

11. Growth factors - extrinsic More money Economies of scale Wavelength cheaper than SDH Gigantism: 100G – “because it’s there” Peer pressure Networking research

12. Growth inhibitors (Ed Seidel, TNC2005) You don’t provide enough (end-to-end) bandwidth! You don’t provide enough QoS The last mile problem…

13. Limiting factors (not boundary conditions) Core constituency is finite Saturation of core constituency Learning and thinking Digital divide Lower limit on telco cost-cutting Time is finite Occam’s razor (entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem)

14. HEAnet trends since 1991

15. Growth trends

16. Traffic growth, by NREN

17. Measured monthly traffic

18. Internet exchanges (1) INEX, Dublin VIX, Vienna MIX-IT, Milan

19. Internet exchanges (2) NIX, Prague AMS-IX, Amsterdam DE-CIX, Frankfurt

20. Internet exchanges (3) JPIX, Tokyo TORIX, Toronto

21. DNS queries to master IE nameserver

22. Domains in.de

23. Domains in.IT

24. RIPE host count

25. Some conclusions What do users want? Review projections – use feedback Publish results, trends Be clear and consistent

26. What users want (1) (Serenate) Networking which is cheap, reliable, technically up- to-date and easy to use. Complexity should be hidden as much as possible Support for video-conferencing services Support for integrated IP communications Support services for end-to-end performance. Advanced applications which will enable new ways of working.

27. What users want (2) (Serenate) Mobility, access from anywhere Growing volumes of data No charging at point-of-use, but…. …marginal cost charging for infrastructure for advanced services Distance learning Guidance on likely future developments

28. A reality check Projection Actual

29. È un altro paio di maniche

30. Questions?

31. Most discoveries are made locally, either at home or a few streets away (J Roth)