1. Weather Briefing for Pennsylvania March 2-3 Outlook Prepared 03/02/14 2:00 pm EST Prepared by: National Weather Service State College, PA (michael.dangelo@noaa.gov)

2. Overview A winter storm will affect only the southern third of the state through Monday morning – Snow has begun over the west but has thus far been very light. Most of the storm will occur overnight. – Significant snow accumulation potential only over the southern third of the state The recent trend in the overall forecast continues -- with a track much farther to the south than previously thought – 5 to 8 inches possible along and south of the Turnpike. Much lighter accumulations immediately to the north of the Turnpike and certainly for areas to the north of Route 22. – Mixed Precipitation Rain and sleet are mixing in with the snow over the south. – Any rain or sleet will further cut snow totals down

3. Cold air is already in place. Light snow has been falling for many hours in the West – mainly south of I-80. Little to no accumulations as of 1 pm Sunday. Temperatures across the South are falling as the snow begins to fall. The Southeast will have an initial period of melting (rain) with temperatures in the mid and upper 30s. Any rain and sleet will turn to snow by midnight. Snow ends quickly tonight in the Southwest and South Central before sunrise. Ends in Philly just after noon. Storm Evolution

4. Current Winter Storm Watches (ending Monday mid/late afternoon)

5. General Snow Accumulations (Expected totals are becoming lower with each passing hour.) Heaviest Snow Potential: 6-8 inches Moderate Snow : 2 to 5 inches Light Snow : 1 to 3 inches Rain/Sleet mixing in 2” at 1 pm

6. TIMING: – Majority of the snow will fall this evening into early Monday morning. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION: – Snow will be moderately heavy...not a “light/fluffy” type This will be especially true where sleet mixes in. Sleet and rain will be present across the SE -- Rain is already falling in a few Southeastern locations. WINDS: – Winds will remain in check with this system...generally favoring a northerly direction at 10 to 15 mph. – Wind Chills across North Central Mountains may be down to -15 degrees Monday morning as temperatures drop overnight. Impacts

7. ROADS: – This storm should only have a significant impact to the morning commute Monday over the South Central & Southeast. Snow covered roads. Maybe some underlying ice on untreated roads as temperatures drop from above freezing to below freezing in the south. TEMPERATURES: – Temperatures will gradually cool through the evening and overnight. (roads may ice up where melting has occurred this aftn/eve). – Very cold air will be across the Commonwealth through the middle of next week in the wake of the storm. Single digit to sub-zero overnight low temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday nights. – Widespread sub-zero wind chills Monday Night/Tuesday Morning Moderation in temperatures by the end of the week, with highs in the 30s and 40s Friday

8. Uncertainties Certainty is now very high that the storm will only significantly impact the southern third of the state. Other areas will have light snow, and the impacts will end overnight (before the morning commute) Rain and sleet mixed in at first this afternoon and will reduce the snow totals – uncertainty is still there as to how much mix there will be. Big take-away: Most of the state will escape with less trouble than was earlier expected. HOWEVER: Significant snow/sleet still expected in the far South and Southeast.

9. Summary A storm will bring snowfall accumulations to the southern half of the state this evening/overnight and very early Monday morning Worst impacts over the far southern tier of the state. Temperatures will be cooling during the event – A snow/sleet mix or even plain rain start to the storm across the south...will transition to all snow overnight, ending as all snow. – Icy roads possible at first as the temperatures cool at the beginning of the precipitation this evening Bitterly cold temperatures will filter into the region behind the storm – A moderation in temperatures expected late in the week

10. Latest Total Snow Forecasts for Central Pennsylvania

11. Links to local NWS offices that cover Pennsylvania (Get the latest forecasts and updates) NWS Cleveland – weather.gov/cleveland NWS Pittsburgh – weather.gov/pittsburgh NWS State College – weather.gov/statecollege NWS Binghamton – weather.gov/binghamton NWS Mount Holly – weather.gov/philadelphia

12. Web Links Emergency Managers’ Briefing Page: – http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/pema/briefing.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/pema/briefing.php PA Snow Accumulation Reports Display – http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/erEventDisplay.php?event=sto rmTotal_12&element=snow&centeron=CTP http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/erEventDisplay.php?event=sto rmTotal_12&element=snow&centeron=CTP Real-Time Loop of Northeast US Radar – http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast_loop.php http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast_loop.php