1. Global Climate Change Consequences for Cerrado Tree Species Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental - CRIA

2. Biodiversity Consequences of Global Climate Change In this study we applied a technique that can be called ecological niche modeling to generate predictive models of species’ potential future geographic distributions.

3. Climate Change and Biodiversity Climate change involve a complex combination of warming, augmented climatic variability, extreme event, etc. Biodiversity consequences are unknown, although are thought to be potentially serious involving drastic reductions and extinctions for many species.

4. Methodology HadCM2 General Circulation Model – two scenarios used –HHGSDX50 - 0.5%/yr CO 2, sulphate aerosol forcing –HHGGAX50 - 1%/yr CO 2, no sulfate aerosols forcing 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution Nine base environmental coverages 162 species – all trees with >30 points (Projeto de Cooperação Técnica Conservação e Manejo da Biodiversidade do Bioma Cerrado – EMBRAPA Cerrados – UnB – Ibama/DFID e RBGE/Reino Unido database)

5. Ecological Niche Modeling and Predicting Geographic Distributions Geography Ecology Distributional points GARP Precipitation Temperature Ecological niche model Distributional prediction Changed climate projection Project climate change

6. Methodology Build ecological models for each species using GARP based on present-day coverages Predict and characterize present-day geographic distribution of each species Adjust geographic coverages according to projections of large-scale models of global climate change Project distributions of each species onto adjusted geographic coverages Compare and contrast present-day and projected distributions across the entire suite of species

7. Present Temperature Regime

8. Projected Changes in Temperature

9. Present Precipitation Regime

10. Projected Precipitation Changes

11. Atlapetes virenticeps Distributional Points

12. Atlapetes virenticeps: Rule set for prediction 0 r 0.50 0.99 28.55 0.35 0.504 IF - Elev*0.26 r + Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 r THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND 4 r 0.53 0.86 23.58 0.51 0.314 IF + Elev*0.32 r - Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 r THEN Taxon=PRESENT 1 r 0.49 0.91 26.32 0.39 0.122 IF - Elev*0.02 r + Precip*0.28 r - Temp*0.30 r THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND 3 m 0.49 0.85 23.73 0.44 0.028 IF Elev=[1482,3360]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 4]r THEN Taxon=PRESENT 6 d 0.49 0.86 20.90 0.33 0.019 IF Elev=[1937,3241]r THEN Taxon=PRESENT 2 d 0.49 0.85 23.78 0.44 0.013 IF Elev=[ 0,2727]r AND Precip=[ 4, 9]r THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND 5 d 0.48 0.83 22.11 0.41 0.000 IF Elev=[1640,2866]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 5]r THEN Taxon=PRESENT

13. Atlapetes virenticeps Predicted Geographic Distribution

14. Atlapetes virenticeps: Rule set for prediction 0 r 0.50 0.99 28.55 0.35 0.504 IF - Elev*0.26 r + Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 r THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND 4 r 0.53 0.86 23.58 0.51 0.314 IF + Elev*0.32 r - Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 r THEN Taxon=PRESENT 1 r 0.49 0.91 26.32 0.39 0.122 IF - Elev*0.02 r + Precip*0.28 r - Temp*0.30 r THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND 3 m 0.49 0.85 23.73 0.44 0.028 IF Elev=[1482,3360]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 4]r THEN Taxon=PRESENT 6 d 0.49 0.86 20.90 0.33 0.019 IF Elev=[1937,3241]r THEN Taxon=PRESENT 2 d 0.49 0.85 23.78 0.44 0.013 IF Elev=[ 0,2727]r AND Precip=[ 4, 9]r THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND 5 d 0.48 0.83 22.11 0.41 0.000 IF Elev=[1640,2866]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 5]r THEN Taxon=PRESENT

15. Atlapetes virenticeps Model Projected on Adjusted Coverages

16. Atlapetes virenticeps Before vs. After

17. Examples of predictions of present (1961-1990) and future (2055) distributions of Acosmium subelegans Area projected to remain habitable in 2055 (AX scenario) Area projected to remain habitable in 2055 (DX scenario)

18. Examples of predictions of present (1961-1990) and future (2055) distributions of cerrado tree species Qualea parvifolia Rapanea guianensis

19. Patterns of predicted species richness among the 162 species of cerrado trees analyzed in the core distributional area of cerrado at the present (1961- 1990)

20. HHGSDX50 climate change scenario = 144 species HHGGAX50 climate change scenario = 106 species Patterns of predicted species richness in a climate change scenario

21. Consequences for the 162 tree species analysed DX Scenario: –18 species were predicted to end up without habitable areas (extinction in cerrado). –91 species were predicted to decline by >90% in potential distributional area in the cerrado region. AX Scenario: –56 were predicted to end up without habitable areas in the cerrado region (extinction in cerrado). –123 species were predicted to decline by >90% in potential distributional area in the cerrado region.

22. Relationship of severity of prediction of climate change consequences in the HHGSDX50 and HHGGAX50 scenarios.

23. Mexican Birds, Mammals, Butterflies

24. Canada Butterflies – Current Species Richness

25. Compare Maximum Species Richness: Present with HSDX 2020 Present 2020

26. Steller’s Jay before Mountains vs Flatlands Steller’s Jay after Pygmy Nuthatch before Pygmy Nuthatch after

27. Baird’s Sparrow before Mountains vs Flatlands Baird’s Sparrow afterLesser Prairie-Chicken beforeLesser Prairie-Chicken after

28. Mountains vs Flatlands

29. Climate Change and Biodiversity Species respond in manners that are quite individual to climate change... General tendencies are not absolute Seriousness of effects varies drastically among regions Effects appear to be in general worse in flatlands regions, and not as serious in montane regions Conservation implications remain almost completely unexplored...

30. Hotspot of Predicted Species Richness among Cerrado Tree Species at Present

31. Prioritization of areas for conservation in the face of changing climates, based on DX scenario of global climate change 87 species 38 species 7 species 6 species 3 species

32. Prioritization of areas for conservation in the face of changing climates, based on AX scenario of global climate change 63 species 32 species 8 species

33. Hotspot of Predicted Species Richness among Cerrado Tree Species at Present

34. HHGSDX50 climate change scenario = 145 species HHGGAX50 climate change scenario = 108 species Patterns of predicted species richness in a climate change scenario

35. São Paulo Museum of Cerrado Tree Diversity???? Lightest red = 81- 120 sepcies Light red = 121 – 140 species Red = > 140 species Black = patches of the cerrado vegetation type

36. Acknowledgments Many thanks to the team of researchers involved in the Projeto de Cooperação Técnica Conservação e Manejo da Biodiversidade do Bioma Cerrado – EMBRAPA Cerrados – UnB – Ibama/DFID e RBGE/Reino Unido for their generosity in making occurrence data available to us. Prof. Dr. A. Townsend Peterson - Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, The University of Kansas, to help with modelling.