1. Climate Prediction Modeling at NCEP “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” 1 Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Washington, D.C. October 3, 2011

2. 2 Outline Define NCEP – Strategic Basis Model Production Suite – Link between weather and climate models NCEP’s Climate Forecast System – Recent upgrade to CFS Version 2.0 – Reanalysis/reforecast Outreach – User/service workshop – COLA agreement – India MOU; model delivery Future CFS – Version 3.0 – engaging the community through the Climate Test Bed – Multi-model ensemble Summary

3. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate, Weather, and Ocean Products Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. 3 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert, and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center

4. 4 NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years CPC Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits TPCOPC HPC SWPCAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : NDFD, Days 4 -7 6-10 Day Forecast MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Seasonal Predictions

5. ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Weather and Climate Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP*) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS Global Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane WRF & GFDL Waves Real Time Ocean Forecast System Space Weather Tsunami *To become available for NCEP operational seasonal prediction in Dec 2011

6. EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPCClimate Test Bed NHCJoint Hurricane Test Bed HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWCAviation Weather Test Bed OPCIOOS Supported Test Bed (in discussion with NOS/IOOS) Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community: Accelerating the R2O Transition Process 6

7. 7 Launch List – Model Implementation Process EMC NCO R&D Operations Delivery Criteria Transition from Research to Operations (R2O) Requirements EMC Schematics in the Model Transition Process OPS Life cycle Support Service Centers NOAA Research Concept of Operations Service Centers User Observation System Field Offices Effort EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability ASI, COLA, ARCS Operations to Research (O2R) Test Beds CTB JCSDA WRF DTC JHT. “To Accelerate R2O, Need to Support O2R”

8. 8 Model Production Suite Link between weather and climate models

9. 9 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s Model Production Suite GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 9 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% ~2B Obs/Day NOS – OFS Great Lakes Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware Space Weather (Future) ENLIL Regional DA

10. 10 NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (CFS)

11. 11 NCEP Requirement for CFS CFS is the first dynamic model used for NCEP operational intra- seasonal and inter-annual forecasts –Operated in an ensemble mode (4/day) –To be combined with EUROSIP models as part of an International Multi- model Ensemble (by December 2011) Provides real-time ENSO forecast for El Nino, La Nina alerts, watches and warnings The CFS-based coupled Reanalysis provides the best estimate of the state of the coupled climate system, which is the basis for operational climate monitoring and analyses. The CFS-based Reforecast provides basis for model calibration of CFS real time forecast used in CPC operations. –

12. CFSv1 implemented CTB spun up CFSv2 implemented 48 month running mean of Heidke Skill scores computed for seasonal outlooks of U.S. Surface Temperature for each 3-month seasonal mean US Seasonal Temperature GPRA* Measure *GPRA – Government Performance and Results Act

13. 13 AttributeCFS v1.0 Operational Since 2004 CFS v2.0 Operational Since March 2011 Analysis Resolution200 km27 km (T574) Atmosphere model2003: 200 km/64 levels Humidity based clouds 2010: 100 km (T126)/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level OSU LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and 3-layer interactive sea ice model CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts (Real-time extension) 15/month seasonal output 24/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS) – Recent upgrade (March 30, 2011) T126

14. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) A T384/L64 (~ 38 km) reanalysis from 1979 – present (GFS/GSI – Atmosphere; MOM4 -Ocean; NOAH/GLDAS – Land; Sea Ice model) A semi-coupled data assimilation – 6 hour guess forecast from a coupled model – Followed by independent ocean and atmosphere reanalysis Implemented operationally in March 2011 Data availability from National Climatic Data Center CFSR data dumps (GB/Month) Number of OceanTemperature Profiles/month 1980-2009 Time  <--Depth

15. Climate Reforecast for CFS Version 2 A coupled prediction system for extended-range and seasonal predictions ; Implemented March 2011, – Atmospheric model -resolution T126, 64 vertical levels – Ocean model (MOM4) horizontal resolution: 1/2 Deg. in zonal direction; 1/4 Deg between 10S-10N gradually increasing to 1/2 Deg poleward of 30S and 30N, Vertical Resolution: 40 layers; with 27-layers in upper 400m, and a bottom at approximately at 4.5 km in the ocean Atmosphere/Ocean/Land/Sea Ice Initial conditions from the CFS Reanalysis Reforecasts for calibration – Seasonal (9-month): 1981 – 2010 (4 runs every five days) – Extended-range (45-day) – 1999-2010 (4 runs every day) – Over 10,000 years of reforecasts Data availability from the NCDC

16. 16 Outreach CFS Needs Assessment Workshop (Mar 2011) COLA agreement (Jul 2009) India MOU (Nov 2010; model delivery (Apr 2011)

17. Goals – Identify CFS users’ needs for model codes and datasets – Develop formal prioritized needs assessment – Develop priority for real-time availability – Identify gaps – Scope user needs for NMME Workshop attended by 50 (private industry, academia, federal, state and local agencies) Results/Requirements – Internal services agreement between NCEP and NCDC in development to identify issues, requirements and options for high priority CFS development, execution, archive and dissemination activities Real-time and reliable access to CFS ensembles, reanalysis, reforecast Refinements to the reanalysis including downscaling, and at model resolution More open process for defining CFS version 3 Reanalysis Lite (unify resolution) 17 CFS Needs Assessment Workshop March 8, 2011

18. COLA-NCEP CFS Collaboration Letter of agreement: “Access to the NCEP Climate Forecast System” signed 15 July 2009 – Over 40 peer-reviewed papers 2008 - 2011 Examples of CFS.v2 research efforts at COLA – Decadal experiments (1960-2010 initial conditions) per CMIP5 protocol – Extension of CFS.v2 to the CFS Interactive Ensemble (CFSIE) – Long free simulations with CFS.v2 and their analysis – Hypothesis-based experiments to address the weak AMOC variability in CFS.v2 – Diagnostics of CFS.v2 hindcasts COLA ported CFS.v2 on different computing platforms (with some help from NCEP); COLA’s experience will help NCEP port CFS.v2 on NOAA’s research HPC Weaker AMOC Drift in Sea Ice thickness – Too much melt?

19. Implementation Agreement on Modeling Between NCEP and Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), India Implementation agreement signed November, 2010 – To develop and transfer extended range and seasonal forecast systems that will permit more accurate and timely predictions of Indian Monsoons for enhancing food security and other agricultural uses April 2011 - NCEP scientists delivered the operational version of the GFS/GSI and CFS.v2 to the MoES April 11-15, 2011, NCEP scientists held a workshop at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) on specialized training on the GFS/GSI and CFS.v2 A jointly funded "Monsoon Desk" has been set up at NCEP to coordinate numerical model simulations and diagnostics with IITM and IMD during the next five years Already documenting improved Monsoon, precipitation and MJO forecasts

20. 20 Future CFS – Version 3.0 – engaging the community through the Climate Test Bed – Multi-model ensemble opportunities

21. Organized by Climate Test Bed (CTB) 48 participants: scientists from NCEP (EMC and CPC), NOAA management, US modeling centers (GFDL, NCAR, NASA/GSFC), international modeling centers (ECMWF, Italy/CMCC, India/IITM, Taiwan/CMB), other centers/labs of NOAA (PMEL, NWS/OST, ESRL, NWS/OHD) and scientists from universities and non-profit research institutes (COLA). Define NOAA’s requirements and strategy for CFSv3 Role of CTB to enhance NCEP collaborations with external community for CFS development Identify range/role of CFS within MMEs (international and national): MME’s representing a major “force for change” in the model and service provider communities Next Steps 1)Hold a CFS Science Workshop focused on CFSv2 evaluations in Spring, 2012 2)Develop a White Paper on CFSv3 Development Strategy based on recommendations from the CFSv3 planning meeting Expectations Results of CFS Version 3 Planning Meeting August 25-26, 2011

22. 22 Commitments for CFSv3 NCEP Human Resources EMC: o Model implementation o Data assimilation o Reanalysis/reforecast NCO o Model implementation o Sustaining the operational model suite CPC: o Model diagnosis/evaluation o Applications for operational ISI forecasts CTB: o Outreach to the research community o Providing a model testing environment for CFS evaluation, diagnosis and improvement o Supporting Climate Process Teams o Facilitates the transfer of specific advances back into NCEP operational version NOAA Computer Resources o GAEA – Site A o ZEUS – Site B o Operational WCOSS

23. 23 Future IMME – EUROSIP NMME –working toward “experimental real-time” –Coordinated and assessed through the Climate Test Bed –Working toward a CONOPS for operational real-time prediction Real-time archive  CFS –Reanalysis –Reforecast –Daily forecasts

24. Table 1. NMME Phased Strategy – coordinated through the Climate Test Bed ActivitiesDescriptionForecast Type Participating Models Where, What and Who Financial Support Data Archive and Distribution Phase-I: NMME Opportunity Ad hoc NMME system based on existing hindcasts from each modeling center Experimental NMME forecast Started in August 2011 NCEP (CFSv1, CFSv2) GFDL (CM2.2) IRI (Echam4-a & 4-f) NCAR (CCSM3.0) NASA (GEOS5) i) Each modeling center runs the reforecasts and real-time forecast in their own computers. ii) NCEP obtains the hindcasts and real time forecasts and makes routine real-time monthly and S/I forecasts CPOi) Each modeling center provides data to the NMME team members; ii) IRI disseminates the monthly mean hindcast and real- time data (3 variables) Phase-II: Purposeful NMME A designed NMME system as a research prototype in preparation for operations Experimental NMME forecast during the FY12-13 research project Potential models: NCEP (CFSv2) GFDL (CM2.5) IRI (Echam4) NCAR (CCSM4.0, and CESM1.0) NASA (GEOS5) Same as Phase-I, except NCAR/CCSM4 and ICHAM models will generate their hindcasts and real time forecasts at NOAA computer (GAEA) CPOi) Each modeling center provides data to the NMME team members; ii) IRI archive the monthly data; iii) and NCDC archives hindcasts and realtime data including daily data from selected models (resources required) Phase-III: Operational NMME An operational NMME ISI prediction system at NCEP Operational NMME Forecast after FY13 and after the value of NMME is demonstrated TBDThree options are listed in Table 2. The issue needs to be resolved through an open review process. For all options, NCEP will obtain the data and make operational real time ISI forecasts. CPONCDC archives and disseminates the NMME hindcast and real time data (resources required)

25. Table2. Three Options for Hindcasts and Real time Forecasts in the Operational NMME Prediction System Operational NMME ReforecastsReal-time forecasts ProsCons and Requirements Option 1Each modeling center 1) Easy to be transitioned to operations since it’s same as Phase-I and II; 2) minimum workload for NCEP (i.e., NCEP needs only to obtain hindcasts and real-time data and make real time forecasts); 3) easy to upgrade models; 4) minimum NCO involvement; 5) can leverage other modeling centers efforts since they general hindcasts for their own uses (e.g., model evaluations); Need to sign agreements between NCEP and each modeling center to ensure real time delivery of hindcasts and real time forecasts. The agreements should include required resources (financial, HPC, personnel). Option 2NCEP Delivery of real-time operational forecasts is guaranteed 1) NCEP needs to port other models to NCEP computer; 2) NCEP needs to train personnel to run other models to generate hindcasts and real-time forecasts; 3) requires tremendous storage; 4) hard to upgrade models Option 3Each modeling centerNCEP1) Leverage other modeling centers efforts since they generate hindcasts for their own uses (e.g., model evaluations and calibration) and thus less work for NCEP; and 2) less storage requirement at NCEP compared to Option 2. 1) NCEP needs to port other models to NCEP computer; 2) NCEP needs to train personnel to run other models to make real-time forecasts; and 3) hard to upgrade models, 4) Need to sign agreements between NCEP and each modeling center to ensure on-time delivery of hindcasts.

26. 26 Summary NCEP has successfully provided an operational Climate Forecast System –First dynamical model used by CPC –Improved seasonal/ENSO forecasts Research community has become increasingly involved with the use of CFS version 1 and 2 for monsoon, MJO, decadal, and other research topics NCEP is committed to support version 2 to version 3 improvements and related “O2R”  “R2O” paradigm NCEP is positioned to help address ongoing opportunities/challenges related to creating a real- time NMME

27. 27 Appendix

28. Computing Capability Transition to IBM Power 6 complete – Declared operational August 12, 2009 – 73.1 trillion calculations/sec – Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 – 156 POWER6 32-way nodes – 4,992 processors – 20 terabytes of memory – 330 terabytes of disk space – 3.5 billion observations/day – 27.8 million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV – Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes – Web access to models as they run on the CCS “reliable, timely and accurate” Number of Hits (Millions) 20012002200320042005200620072008 2009 Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2010