1. VISTAS Modeling Overview Oct. 29, 2003 pat.brewer@ncmail.net

2. VISTAS is evaluating visibility and sources of fine particulate mass in the Southeastern US View NE from Appalachian Trail, Mt. Cammerer, Great Smoky Mtns.

4. VISTAS - Regional Haze Timeline 2004200520062008200720022003199920002001 Regional Haze Rule PM 2.5 Designation Mar 2004 PM 2.5 & Haze SIPs Dec 2007 Air Quality Monitoring Emissions Inventory Atmospheric Modeling VISTAS Planning States Develop Haze SIPs Strategy Design Policy Interpretation Baseline and natural conditions BART Sources Reasonable Progress Goals Base year and future year strategies Base year and future year air quality

5. Air Quality Emissions Meteorology Air Quality Responses to Emission Controls Policy Interpretation VISTAS Science Supports Regulatory Decisions anthropogenic biogenic topography gases particles deposition visibility Atmospheric Model: Chemistry Transport Deposition

6. 2001 Annual Average Light Extinction From VIEWS website Mm -1

7. Extinction (Mm-1) Coarse Soil Organics EC NH 3 NO 3 (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 Rayleigh Dolly Sods, WV Shenandoah, VA James Rvier Face, VA Mammoth Cave, KY Sipsey, AL Great Smoky Mtns, TN Linville Gorge, NC Swan Quarter, NC Cape Romain, SC Okefenokee, GA Chassahowitzka, FL Everglades, FL Shining Rock, NC Light Extinction on 20% Haziest Days - IMPROVE 1998 - 2001

8. 125,000 25,000 SO 2 Point Sources >5,000 Tons per year 1999 National Emissions Inventory v 2 250,000 Annual SO 2 emissions

9. VISTAS Air Quality Modeling Objectives: Accurately represent meteorology, emissions, and air quality wMM5, SMOKE, CMAQ Model base year to support both regional haze and PM 2.5 regulatory requirements Model future year and control strategies for regional haze wstates responsible for PM 2.5 attainment demonstrations

10. VISTAS Air Quality Modeling Phase I : Evaluate different model configurations for 3 episodes: Jan 02, July 99, July 01 wrecommend annual modeling protocol Jan 04 Phase Ib : Evaluate emissions sensitivities wDecoupled Direct Method (DDM) to support design of emissions control strategies - Sept 04 Phase II : Annual regional modeling wbase year modeling begins Jan 04 wcontrol strategy runs completed by June 05

11. VISTAS Modeling Contracts Meteorological Modeling wBaron Applied Meteorological Systems Emissions, and Air Quality Modeling wEnviron International Corporation wUniversity of California – Riverside wAlpine Geophysics Emissions sensitivities using DDM for aerosols wGeorgia Institute of Technology

12. VISTAS 36-km and 12-km CMAQ Modeling Domains

13. Initial CMAQ Model Configuration CMAQ Version 4.3 (August 2003) Horizontal Advection and Vertical Advection wPiecewise Parabolic Method (PPM) Gas-Phase Chemistry: CB-IV with MEBI/Hertel Solver Aerosol Chemistry: AE3 / ISORROPIA / SORGAM Aqueous-Phase Chemistry: RADM Dry Deposition: Pleim-Xiu MM5 Configuration: wPleim-Xiu/ACM Soil/PBL models with MCIP2.2 Pass Through SMOKE Emissions: NEI 1999 v2 with CMU NH 3

14. CMAQ Sensitivity Tests: 3 episodes Vertical Layers: 19 vs 34 layers Boundary Conditions: Ultra Clean, GEOS-CHEM Ammonia Emissions: Jan 50% reduction, diurnal pattern Vertical Diffusivity - Minimum Kz: 0.1 or 1.0 m 2 /s Alternative meteorology - with Wesley Dry Deposition SAPRC-99 chemistry CB-2002 chemistry CB-AIMS chemistry with sectional approach Best and Final CMAQ configuration CAM-x trial with comparable configuration

15. Emissions Sensitivities Objectives Install DDM-AERO in CMAQ –DDM gas-phase already in CMAQ Demonstrate DDM-AERO performance – “Limits of linearity” for each pollutant Apply DDM-AERO to evaluate emissions changes: –Point SO 2, Area SO 2, Point NO x, Mobile NO x, Area NH 3... –States, regions, boundary conditions Test options to revise CMAQ code to improve model efficiency

16. Aug 2003: Emissions Inventory Base 2002 Dec 2003: Revised Em Inv Base 2002 Jan 2004: Modeling Protocol Mar 2004: Draft Em Inv 2018 July 2004: Revised State Em Inv Base 2002 Sept 2004: Annual Base Year Model Runs Dec 2004: Annual Run 2018 Apr 2004: DDM in CMAQ Oct 2004: Sensitivity Runs 2018 3 episodes Dec 2003: Met, Em, AQ model testing 3 episodes Sept 2004: Revised Em Inv 2018 Oct-Dec 2004: Control Strategy Inventories Jan 2005: Sensitivity Runs 2018 episodes Jan-Jun 2005: Control Strategy Runs 2018 Mar 2004: CART:select sensitivity episodes July-Dec 2005: Observations Conclusions Recommendations After Jun 2005 Model Runs: e.g. Power Plant Turnover Before Jun 2005 Other Inventory: e.g. Power Plant Turnover Meteorological, Emissions, and Air Quality Modeling Deliverables State Regulatory Activities Jan-Mar 2004 Define BART sources Optional June 2004 Identify BART controls Draft 08/18/03