1. Dr. Michael J. Baranick Senior Research Professor National Defense University baranickm@ndu.edu

2. Things that change societies  Land ownership  Taxes  Transportation  Media  Wars  Migration

3. Conditions for Creating Stable States  World Historical Timing  Military Threats  Skillful Leadership

4. Conditions for a stable state  Good Governance  Rule of Law  Security  Economic Development

5. Governance  Legitimate  Transparent  Accountable  Checks and Balances of Power

6. Rule of Law  Checks and Balances  Equal to All  Accountability  Understood

7. Security  National Security  Security as an International Order  Human Security/Justice

8. Transformation Anarchy Autocratic Communism Democracy Capitalism Market driven Economy Limited Democracy

9. Economic Development  Laws  Counting System  Educated People  Products to Market  Taxing System

10. Development Traps  Bad Governance  Bad Neighbors  Land Lock  Nothing of Value to Market

11. Conflict Assessments Structure ActorsDynamics Analyses of long-term Factors underlying conflicts: Security Political Economic History Analyses of Actors: Interests Motivation Relations Capacity Benefits Analyses of Dynamics: Long-term trends of conflicts Triggers for increasing violence Capacity for managing conflict Likely future conflicts scenarios