1. Review of RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC up to 8 TeV and Extension to 13 TeV Konstantin Goulianos http://physics.rockefeller.edu/dino/my.html 1DIS-2015 Dallas RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos GAP http://www.dis2015.org

2. Basic and combined diffractive processes CONTENTS RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 2DIS-2015 Dallas  Diffraction  SD1 p 1 p 2  p 1 +gap+X 2 Single Diffraction / Dissociation –1  SD2p 1 p 2  X 1 +gap+p 2 Single Diffraction / Dissociation - 2  DDp 1 p 2  X 1 +gap+X 2 Double Diffraction / Double Dissociation  CD/DPEp 1 p 2  gap+X+gap Central Diffraction / Double Pomeron Exchange  Renormalization  Unitarization  RENORM Model  Triple-Pomeron Coupling  Total Cross Section  RENORM Predictions Confirmed  RENORM Predictions Extended  References  MBR MC Simulation in PYTHIA8, KG & R. Ciesielski, http://arxiv.org/abs/1205.1446  Previous talk (RENORM diffractive predictions extended to higher LHC and future accelerator energies) – similar to present talk  LHCFPWG 2015 Madrid (slides) http://workshops.ift.uam-csic.es/LHCFPWG2015/program (21-25 Apr 2015)  Present talk (predictions compared to final CMS results)  CMS Soft Diffraction at 7 TeV: http://arxiv.org/format/1503.08689v1 (30 Mar 2015)http://arxiv.org/format/1503.08689v1

3. Basic and combined diffractive processes RENORM: Basic and Combined Diffractive Processes 4-gap diffractive process-Snowmass 2001- http://arxiv.org/pdf/hep-ph/0110240http://arxiv.org/pdf/hep-ph/0110240 gap SD DD RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 3DIS-2015 Dallas BASIC COMBINED particles DD SD Cross sections analytically expressed in arXiv below:

4. KG-PLB 358, 379 (1995) Regge Theory: Values of s o & g PPP ? Parameters:  s 0, s 0 ' and g(t)  set s 0 ' = s 0 (universal Pomeron)  determine s 0 and g PPP – how?  (t)=  (0)+  ′t  (0)=1+  RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 4DIS-2015 Dallas http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/037026939501023J

5. A complicatiion…  Unitarity! Theoretical Complication: Unitarity!   sd grows faster than  t as s increases *  unitarity violation at high s (also true for partial x-sections in impact parameter space)  the unitarity limit is already reached at √s ~ 2 TeV !  need unitarization * similarly for (d  el /dt) t=0 w.r.t.  t  but this is handled differently in RENORM RENORM predictions for diffraction at LHC confirmed RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 5DIS-2015 Dallas

6. Factor of ~8 (~5) suppression at √s = 1800 (540) GeV Diffractive x-section suppressed relative to Regge prediction as √s increases KG, PLB 358, 379 (1995) 1800 GeV 540 GeV M ,t,t p p p’ √s=22 GeV RENORMALIZATION Regge FACTORIZATION BREAKING IN SOFT DIFFRACTION CDFCDF Interpret flux as gap formation probability that saturates when it reaches unity RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 6DIS-2015 Dallas http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/037026939501023J

7. Gap probability  (re)normalize it to unity Single Diffraction Renormalized - 1 2 independent variables: t color factor gap probability sub-energy x-section KG  CORFU-2001: http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0203141 RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 7DIS-2015 Dallas

8. Single Diffraction Renormalized - 2 color factor Experimentally: KG&JM, PRD 59 (114017) 1999 QCD: RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 8DIS-2015 Dallas

9. Single Diffraction Renormalized - 3 set to unity  determines s o RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 9DIS-2015 Dallas

10. M2 distribution: data M 2 - Distribution: Data KG&JM, PRD 59 (1999) 114017  factorization breaks down to ensure M 2 scaling Regge 1 http://physics.rockefeller.edu /publications.html  d  dM 2 | t=-0.05 ~ independent of s over 6 orders of magnitude ! data RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 10DIS-2015 Dallas http://physics.rockefeller.edu/publications.html

11. Scale s 0 and PPP Coupling  Two free parameters: s o and g PPP  Obtain product g PPP s o  from  SD  Renormalized Pomeron flux determines s o  Get unique solution for g PPP Pomeron-proton x-section Pomeron flux: interpret it as gap probability  set to unity: determines g PPP and s 0 KG, PLB 358 (1995) 379 RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 11DIS-2015 Dallas http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/037026939501023J

12. DD at CDF  Renor’d gap probabilityx-section RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 12DIS-2015 Dallas  Regge x-section divided by integrated gap prob. http://physics.rockefeller.edu/publications.html

13. SDD at CDF  Excellent agreement between data and MBR (MinBiasRockefeller) MC RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 13DIS-2015 Dallas http://physics.rockefeller.edu/publications.html

14. CD/DPE at CDF  Excellent agreement between data and MBR based MC  Confirmation that both low and high mass x-sections are correctly implemented RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 14DIS-2015 Dallas http://physics.rockefeller.edu/publications.html

15. RENORM Difractive Cross Sections  1 =0.9,  2 =0.1, b 1 =4.6 GeV -2, b 2 =0.6 GeV -2, s′=s e -  y,  =0.17,  2 (0)=  0, s 0 =1 GeV 2,  0 =2.82 mb or 7.25 GeV -2 RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 15DIS-2015 Dallas

16. Total, Elastic, and Inelastic x-Sections GeV 2 KG Moriond 2011, arXiv:1105.1916  el p±p =  tot p±p ×(  el  tot ) p±p, with  el  tot from CMG small extrapol. from 1.8 to 7 and up to 50 TeV ) CMG RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 16DIS-2015 Dallas

17. The total x-section √s F =22 GeV 98 ± 8 mb at 7 TeV 109 ±12 mb at 14 TeV Main error is due to s 0 RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 17DIS-2015 Dallas

18. How to Reduce Uncertainty in s 0  glue-ball-like object  “superball”  mass  1.9 GeV  m s 2 = 3.7 GeV  agrees with RENORM s o =3.7  Error in s 0 can be reduced by factor ~4 from a fit to these data  reduces error in  t RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 18DIS-2015 Dallas

19. TOTEM (2012) vs PYTHIA8-MBR  inel 7 TeV = 72.9 ±1.5 mb  inel 8 TeV = 74.7 ±1.7 mb TOTEM, G. Latino talk at MPI@LHC, CERN 2012 MBR: 71.1±5 mb superball  ±1.2 mb RENORM: 72.3±1.2 mb RENORM: 71.1±1.2 mb RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 19DIS-2015 Dallas

20. ATLAS - in Diffraction 2014 (Talk by Marek Taševský, slide#19 RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 20DIS-2015 Dallas http://www.cs.infn.it/en/web/external_community/home 20 RENORM: 98.0±1.2 mb 19

21. The CMS Detector RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 21DIS-2015 Dallas CASTOR forward calorimeter important for separating SD from DD contributions DD SD ND CD

22. CMS Data vs MC Models (2015)-1 RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 22DIS-2015 Dallas SD dominated dataDD dominated data  Error bars are dominated by systematics  DD data scaled downward by 15% (within MBR and CDF data errors)

23. CMS Data vs MC Models (2015) -2 RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 23DIS-2015 Dallas Central  -gap x-sections (DD dominated) .P8-MBR provides the best fit to data .All above models too low at small 

24. SD/DD Extrapolations to  x ≤ 0.05 vs MC Models RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 24DIS-2015 Dallas

25. p T Distr’s of MCs vs Pythia8 Tuned to MBR  COLUMNS Mass Regions  Low5.5<MX<10 GeV  Med.32<MX<56 GeV  High176<MX<316 GeV  ROWS MC Models  PYTHIA8-MBR  PYTHIA8-4C  PYTHIA6-Z2*  PHOJET  QGSJET-II-03  QGSJET-04  EPOS-LHC  CONCLUSION  PYTHIA8-MBR agrees best with the reference model and is used by CMS in extrapolating to the unmeasured regions.  Pythia8 tuned to MBR RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 25DIS-2015 Dallas

26. Charged Mult’s vs MC Model – 3 Mass Regions Pythia8 parameters tuned to reproduce multiplicities of modified gamma distribution (MGD) KG, PLB 193, 151 (1987 ) Mass Regions  Low5.5<MX<10 GeV  Med.32<MX<56 GeV  High176<MX<316 GeV RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 26DIS-2015 Dallas 0 < p T < 1.4 GeV CERN ISR 52.6 GeV SppS 540 GeV - Diffractive data vs MGD CERN ISR & SppS w/MGD fit - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0370269387904746

27. Pythia8-MBR Hadronization Tune 27 PYTHIA8 default  Pp (s) expected from Regge phenomenology for s 0 =1 GeV 2 and DL t-dependence. Red line:-best fit to multiplicity distributions. (in bins of Mx, fits to higher tails only, default pT spectra)  good description of low multiplicity tails R. Ciesielski, “Status of diffractive models”, CTEQ Workshop 2013 Diffraction: tune SigmaPomP Diffraction: QuarkNorm/Power parameter RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 27DIS-2015 Dallas

28. SD and DD x-Sections vs Models Includes ND background RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 28DIS-2015 Dallas Single Diffraction Double Diffraction

29. CMS vs MC & ATLAS RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 29DIS-2015 Dallas Uncorrected Δη F distribution vs MCs Stable-particle x-sections for pT>200 MeV and |  |<4.7 compared to the ATLAS 2012 result similar result

30. Monte Carlo Algorithm - Nesting y'cy'c Profile of a pp Inelastic Collision  y‘ <  y' min hadronize  y′ >  y' min generate central gap repeat until  y' <  y' min ln s′ =  y′ evolve every cluster similarly gap no gap final state of MC w /no-gaps t gap t t t1t1 t2t2 RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 30DIS-2015 Dallas

31. SUMMARY  Introduction  Diffractive cross sections:  basic: SD1,SD2, DD, CD (DPE)  combined: multigap x-sections  ND  no diffractive gaps:  this is the only final state to be tuned  Monte Carlo strategy for the LHC – “nesting” derived from ND and QCD color factors Thank you for your attention! Special thanks to Robert A. Ciesielski, my collaborator in the PYTHIA8-MBR project Warm thanks to my CDF and CMS colleagues, and to Office of Science of DOE RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 31DIS-2015 Dallas

32. BACKUP RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 32DIS-2015 Dallas

33. Saturation at Low Q 2 and Small-x figure from a talk by Edmond Iancu RENORM Diffractive Predictions for LHC K.Goulianos 33DIS-2015 Dallas