1. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB, background and principle Peter Borgen Sørensen, Christian Kjær Aarhus University, National Research Institute, Department of Terrestrial Ecology Per Kudsk, Lise Nistrup Jørgensen Aarhus University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Integrated Pest Management Jens Erik Ørum University of Copenhagen, Institute of Food and Resource Economy Michael Stjernholm Aarhus University, National Research Institute, Department of Freshwater Ecology Steen Gyldenkærne Aarhus University, National Research Institute, Department of Policy Analysis

2. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Goal for a new improved indicator, PestNaB Make a valid indicator that can reflect the potential risk for nature due to application of pesticides Excluding –Groundwater –Human health

3. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Developing pesticide indicators O Often over looked in the discussion of pesticide indicators ! From EEA internal working paper, 2003: Environmental Indicators: Typology and Use in Reporting

4. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Developing pesticide indicators Agree on a story: a description of the problem and its solution: The use of pesticides may result in adverse effects even though the risk assessment predicts them to be “harmless”. This is not a consequence of insufficient work of the risk assessors, but an unavoidable problem arising from the highly complicated task of risk level prediction.

5. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Developing pesticide indicators Agree on a story: a description of the problem and its solution: It is advisable to apply risk reduction that limits the likelihood of unpredicted adverse effects to support the risk assessment. Pesticide indicators are useful to guide towards best possible risk reduction

6. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Developing pesticide indicators From EEA internal working paper, 2003: Environmental Indicators: Typology and Use in Reporting PestNaB’s focus

7. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB The basis of PestNaB PestNaB needs to include all means of management to reduce risk: –Change in application rates –Change in rate of transport to eco-system –Change in substance composition –Change in location of application –Guide the search for adverse effects

8. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB The basis of PestNaB The governing principles –Relative analysis: Only predictions related to relative risk level –“Pressure” in terms of toxic pressure (number of doses entering the eco-system) –Hotspots of risk are critical, where several indicators simultaneously predicts increased risk level (reflection of the risk assessment paradigm)

9. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB The basis of PestNaB Where is the nature Where is the spraying What has been sprayed How toxic is the pesticides Occam’s Razor (1290-1349): "entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity" Increased complexity has the burden of proof V.N.Vapnik (1995): “When solving a given problem, try to avoid solving a more general problem as an intermediate step”

10. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Defining nature elements

11. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Hedge rows, burial mounds (from stone age), drystone walls, heaths/moors and similar habitats group of trees forests wetlands streams/rivers lakes ponds Defining nature elements

12. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB GIS analysis Denmark divided into grid of 1 km 2

13. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB GLR (Information about fields) Kort10 (Information about nature) Bekæmpelsesmiddel- statistik (Average used amount for different crops based on expert knowledge and sales numbers, better data could be applied) GIS analysis

14. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Indicator calculation a 1 m 2 x 1,a x 2,a x 3,a

15. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Load n : Toxic load for end point n A : Grid area (m 2 ) Dose i,a :Mean yearly dose of active ingredient i and for square meter a in the grid Tox n,i :Toxicity selected for endpoint n and active ingredient i x e,a : Distance for square meter number a i :Index for active ingredients I :Number if active ingredients a :Index for a specific square meter A :Number of square meters in the grid, - the area = 1000,000 m 2 e :Index for type of nature element (Streams/rivers, Ponds/lakes, Terrestrial) Indicator calculation in a grid For indicators, where the transport pathway is spray drift

16. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Indicator calculation in a grid Load n : Toxic load for indicator n A : Grid area (m 2 ) Dose i :Mean yearly dose in the grid Tox n,i :Toxicity selected to indicator n and active ingredient i K oc :Adsorption coefficient to organic carbon i :Index for active ingredients I :Number if active ingredients a :Index for a specific square meter A :Number of square meters in the grid, - the area = 1000,000 m 2 For indicators, where the transport pathway is leaching

17. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Indicator calculation in a grid Load n : Toxic load for indicator n A : Grid area (m 2 ) Dose i :Mean yearly dose in the grid Tox n,i :Toxicity selected for indicator n and active ingredient i i :Index for active ingredients I :Number if active ingredients a :Index for a specific square meter A :Number of square meters in the grid, - the area = 1000,000 m 2 For indicators that include non target organisms within the agricultural fields

18. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Indicator calculation in a grid Load n : Toxic load for indicator n A : Grid area (m 2 ) Dose i :Mean yearly dose in the grid StdDose n,i : Standard dose for indicator n and active ingredient i i :Index for active ingredients I :Number if active ingredients a :Index for a specific square meter A :Number of square meters in the grid, - the area = 1000,000 m 2 For indicators that includes target organism within the agricultural fields as indicator for indirect effects due to food chain impacts

19. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB No.ExposureIndicatorProtection 1Within the agricultural fields MammalsTerrestrial nature in side agricultural field 2-Birds- 3-Bees- 4-Earthworms- 5-InsectsFood chain inside agricultural field 6-Plants- 7Drift to terrestrial nature BeesTerrestrial nature out side agricultural field 8-Arthropods- 9-Plants- Indicators

20. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB No.ExposureIndicatorProtection 10LeachingAlgaeSurface water 11-Invertebrates- 12-Fishes- 13Drift to streamsAlgae- 14-Invertebrates- 15-Fishes- 16Drift to pondsAlgae- 17-Invertebrates- 18-Fishes- Indicators

21. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB How to apply indicator values Reflecting hot spots Thus, sensitivity for “worst case”, where several indicators predicts increased risk level simultaneously Relative basis Only relative relations are real, thus no distinction between A>B and A>>B. All interpretation of pesticide risk indicators as numbers is a misunderstanding

22. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB How to apply indicator values Partial Order is used as governing principle Maximal transparency Minimal functional assumptions Only make a rank when there are no disagreement between the single indicators

23. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark 3Ind3 4Ind2 2Ind1 RangBA Scenarium 1 Scenarium 2

24. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark A<B43Ind3 A<B54Ind2 A<B32Ind1 RangBA A>B0 A<B1 A,B: konflikt0 A=B0 Scenarium 1 Scenarium 2

25. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark 3Ind3 4Ind2 2Ind1 RangBAA>B0 A<B1 A,B: konflikt0 A=B0 Scenarium 1 Scenarium 2

26. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark A>B23Ind3 A>B34Ind2 A>B12Ind1 RangBA A>B1 A<B1 A,B: konflikt0 A=B0 Scenarium 1 Scenarium 2

27. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark 3Ind3 4Ind2 2Ind1 RangBA A>B1 A<B1 A,B: konflikt0 A=B0 Scenarium 1 Scenarium 2

28. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark A<B43Ind3 A=B44Ind2 A<B 6 2Ind1 RangBA A>B1 A<B2 A,B: konflikt0 A=B0 Scenarium 1 Scenarium 2

29. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark 3Ind3 4Ind2 2Ind1 RangBA A>B1 A<B2 A,B: konflikt0 A=B0

30. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark A<B43Ind3 A>B34Ind2 A>B 1 2Ind1 RangBA A>B1 A<B2 A,B: konflikt1 A=B0 Scenarium 1 Scenarium 2

31. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB How to rank two scenarios, A and B A>B RS A>B : The Rank Strength for A>B

32. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Scenario A:Application anno 2007 Scenario B:Application anno 2001 :293,854,077 :389,177,853 :1,056,501,190 :196.420 RS A>B :-0,05 How to rank two scenarios, A and B

33. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB

34. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB

35. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB PestNaB analysis of year 2007. Individual grid rank using all indicators. Strongest hotspots Weaker hotspots No hotspots

36. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB PestNaB analysis of year 2007. Individual grid rank using indicators for eco toxicity within the agricultural fields Strongest hotspots Weaker hotspots No hotspots

37. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB PestNaB analysis of year 2007. Individual grid rank using indicators for eco toxicity on terrestrial ecosystem around agricultural fields Strongest hotspots Weaker hotspots No hotspots

38. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB PestNaB analysis of year 2007. Individual grid rank using indicators for eco toxicity in surface water ecosystems. Strongest hotspots Weaker hotspots No hotspots

39. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Analysis of means for risk reduction The following table: Calculation of Rank strength, where the goal scenario for realistic reduction in usage is used as basis scenario (Scenario B) and where the real conditions for 2007 usage is modified in according to different means for risk reduction (different Scenario A’s).

40. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Scenarie A All Indicators (Ind 1-18) Category of protection Within agricultural fields (Ind 1-6) Terrestrial Outside agricultural fields (Ind 7-9) Surface water (Ind 10-18) Actual usage in 20070,180,360,500,13 Non spraying zones (10 m)0,150,360,280,13 Reduced spraying zones (20 m)0,130,360,13 Substitution-0,02-0,060,06-0,19 Increased organic farming (from 2% to 4% of agricultural area) 0,170,330,470,12 Reduced usage of insecticides0,100,110,210,09 All means jointly-0,13-0,09-0,21

41. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark PestNaB Application of PestNaB Identification of trend (upward/downward) in the risk pressure Setting up measurable targets for risk reduction that can guide implementation of improved praxis in the agriculture Guide for monitoring for effects and exposure by identification of hot spots Held to plan research activities that search for “real” adverse effects